Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Selby

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
John P. Grogan
Conservative Party:
Michael Mitchell
Liberal Democratic Party:
Jeremy Wilcock
UK Independence Party:
Robert Lewis

Incumbent:
John Grogan

97 Result:
John Grogan
25,83845.9%
Ken Hind
22,00239.1%
Ted Batty
6,77812.0%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
56,31674.95%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
20,75235.7%
29,73951.2%
7,59513.1%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
58,08680.5%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1620.0%
16-2412.3%
25-3922.0%
40-6529.0%
65 <16.8%

Ethnic Origin:
White99.4%
Black0.1%
Indian/Pakistani0.1%
Other non-white0.3%

Employment:
Full Time63.8%
Part Time17.5%
Self Employed12.2%
Government Schemes1.1%
Unemployed5.4%

Household SEG:
I - Professional6.6%
II - Managerial/Technical33.8%
III - Skilled (non-manual)12.0%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)28.4%
IV - Partly Skilled13.0%
V - Unskilled4.1%

Misc:
Own Residence76.9%
Rent Residence20.3%
Own Car(s)78.2%
Submissions
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04/05/01 Cynewulf Email:
This will be a very close call, but on balance Labour should manage to hold with a reduced majority. They won for the first time in 1997, since when John Grogan has been a very assiduous Constituency MP, enjoying a high profile due to the floods and the Great Heck rail crash. The Tories may well lose some votes as the result of the entry of a UKIP candidate. The Lib Dems' impact could largely determine the result : they have pledged no pacts or deals, and will campaign on a positive pro-European platform which will ensure UKIP enter the debate and that the Labour and Tory candidates need to define their positions. Finally, the entry of a Green candidate will further confuse the issue, as she may syphon some support from Labour and perhaps Lib Dem in an area with specific environmental concerns. Definitely one to watch!

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Last Updated 7 May 2001
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