Election Prediction Project
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British General Election
Haltemprice and Howden

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Leslie Howell
Conservative Party:
Rt. Hon. David M. Davis
Liberal Democratic Party:
Jon Neal
UK Independence Party:
Joanne Robinson

Incumbent:
Rt Hon David Davis

97 Result:
George McManus
11,70123.6%
David Davis
21,80944.0%
Diana Wallis
14,29528.8%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
49,55075.53%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
7,77415.3%
30,08559.3%
12,77225.2%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
50,74179.2%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1618.7%
16-2411.2%
25-3919.1%
40-6531.2%
65 <19.8%

Ethnic Origin:
White99.2%
Black0.1%
Indian/Pakistani0.3%
Other non-white0.4%

Employment:
Full Time61.5%
Part Time18.6%
Self Employed13.7%
Government Schemes1.3%
Unemployed4.9%

Household SEG:
I - Professional9.0%
II - Managerial/Technical37.9%
III - Skilled (non-manual)14.8%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)23.6%
IV - Partly Skilled10.8%
V - Unskilled2.8%

Misc:
Own Residence83.4%
Rent Residence14.7%
Own Car(s)81.2%
Submissions
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28/04/01 RP Email:
This seat is a 2 horse race between the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives. Labour cannot win. They have no local Councillors at all in the constituency. A Labour MP and a Labour newspaper have been urging Labour voters to vote tactically for the Liberal Democrats in Haltemprice & Howden. A lot has changed since the last general election. The Liberal Democrats won the popular vote at the last local elections in 1999. They have a hard-working team in the area. William Hague's Conservatives are campaigning for 16 billion worth of cuts to public services but the Liberal Democrats are fighting for more investment in our local schools and hospitals. This has led me and other local people to come to the conculsion that it is neck-and-neck between the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives.
29/04/01 CM Email:
Some wishful thinking by the Lib Dems here I think. This seat was won comfortably by David Davis even in 1997 and he's not going to lose it now. The Lib Dems would tactical voting on a massive scale to take this one - 65% of the Labour vote would have to switch to the Lib Dems. It ain't going to happen.
29/04/01 JR Email:robertsat13@cwcom.net
Local Tory MP and Chairman of the Public Accounts Committee David Davis will fight tooth and nail to hold this seat, as he is being talked about as a future Tory leader (even though he was only ever a junior Foreign Office Minister while they were in Government - don't ask me, I'm just told that's the rumour going round Westminster.)
01/05/01 J Email:
The Lib Dem vote in Haltemprice & Howden has been going up since the 97 election. The Labour vote has decreased (to 7% in 1999) and the Tory vote has been going down as well. It's more winnable for the Lib Dems than Romsey was. The Tory MP clearly thinks that he doesn't have to campaign much in order to keep his seat. He hasn't been in the local press, he rarely appears in leaflets delivered in the constituency, and most people have never heard of him. Tory complacency might get the better of them, as the Lib Dems are running a winning campaign.
02/05/01 JW Email:
What the Conservatives fail to appreciate that the world in 1997 was different. John Major was seen as a nice man leading a party that had run out of steam and was tainted with sleaze. In 2001 things have changed - William Hague is despised by his own side, speculation abounds as to who will follow him, and his policies are unworkable, reactionary, and disgustingly populist. His recent dithering over Townend has further dismayed his supporters. Under these circumstances, why would Tory voters turn out ? Neal is well known and liked, and has run an honest, hardworking campaign. Labour seem to have given up - nobody knows who their candidate even is. The Lib Dems will walk it.
08/05/01 Cynewulf Email:
A further point must be the damaging impact on the Conservative vote of a candidate from the UK Independence Party. They have a record of activity in Howden and have done much to raise their profile in recent town elections. Undoubtedly they will appeal to anti-European Tory voters who believe Hague is unelectable, and who may therefore register a protest vote for UKIP. The latter, unlike the previous right wing nationalist parties (the National Front and the BNP), have a veneer of respectability which could make the difference and help Neal to win through the desertion of a couple of thousand Tory votes. UKIP certainly shorten the odds on a Lib Dem victory here.

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Last Updated 6 June 2001
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