Election Prediction Project
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British General Election
Vale of Clwyd

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Christopher S. Ruane
Conservative Party:
Brendan P. Murphy
Liberal Democratic Party:
Graham Rees
Plaid Cymru:
UK Independence Party:
Matthew Guest

Incumbent:
Chris Ruane

97 Result:
Chris Ruane
20,61752.7%
David Edwards
11,66229.8%
Daniel Munford
3,4258.8%
Gwyneth Kensler
23015.88%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
39,13274.65%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
16,94138.8%
19,11843.7%
5,43512.4%
2,0954.8%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
43,71282.5%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1618.8%
16-2411.6%
25-3918.1%
40-6526.1%
65 <25.4%

Ethnic Origin:
White99.3%
Black0.1%
Indian/Pakistani0.3%
Other non-white0.3%

Employment:
Full Time57.7%
Part Time16.8%
Self Employed13.9%
Government Schemes1.6%
Unemployed10.0%

Household SEG:
I - Professional4.1%
II - Managerial/Technical29.5%
III - Skilled (non-manual)12.8%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)30.4%
IV - Partly Skilled15.3%
V - Unskilled4.2%

Misc:
Own Residence74.9%
Rent Residence23.6%
Own Car(s)67.1%
Submissions
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06/05/01 Pseudonym: 'Disraeli' Email:
I am in close contact with some Tory campaigners in the Vale of Clwyd (and have spoken with the PPC) and can give some first-hand feedback to you; I also believe that on the PPC website (www.brendan-murphy.co.uk) and the Association website (www.vale-of-clwyd.conservatives.org.uk) there are recent polls in the community suggesting the election could be close. I have examined the difference between the 1992 and 1997 elections and discovered there were a great deal of Tory abstentions in 1997 and some tactical voting by the Lib Dems (2,000 votes 'disappeared'). Also some feedback from constituents suggests there is growing disillusionment within the constituency with Labour - even some Plaid Cymru voters have said they might vote Tory to get Labour out. It is a clear contest between Labour and the Tories in the Vale of Clwyd with other parties having little chance. The Tories narrowly won the European elections there in 1999 and there is reasonable evidence to suggest that in June 2001 there may be significant Labour abstentions in the constituency. Thanks
10/05/01 JMD Email:
Though the national opinion polls may currently suggest otherwise, the Conservatives should have a good chance of capturing this seat. It must be remembered that most areas of the constituency had effectively always been Conservative until 1997. It is here where the fuel crisis of last Autumn began, and being a semi-rural seat, there are other factors which may well produce a large regional Lab-Con swing. I sense a profound disillusionment with Labour in this part of North Wales, and have lost count of the number of traditional Labour voters who say never again will they support the Party. The Conservatives are also putting up a big fight here this time, which will no doubt boost their chances. If Chester is down as a close Lab/Con contest, then the Vale of Clwyd should definitely be.
18/05/01 PSR Email:
I think that Labour should just about hold this seat as it would take a swing of over 11% to defeat them and I don't think that there will any swings that big to any party anywhere on this election night. However, in light of the fact that the seat is very rural and taking on board what the other contributors have said I suspect that Chris Ruane's majority will be heavily slashed. P.S. It will be interesting to see what impact John Prescott's left-hook in Rhyl will have, it might not be such a disadvantage as it looks.
21/05/01 Vale of Clwyd resident Email:
I strongly believe tha the Conservatives have a very good chance of taking this seat. There are many factors that have already been mentioned which I will not repeat. However there are some other factors to consider. Firstly is the geographical make up of the seat. Prestatyn is exactly the type of area where Conservatives either stayed at home or voted tactically. These people will almost certainly come back. Then there is Rhyl which is a tradional Labour area. Many people will be fed up with 'New' Labour and might well stay at home. There are two more factors worth considering. Firstly is the swing that was against the Conservatives last time. 13.5% was the biggest in Wales. And history shows that a violent swing one way is jsut as likey to swing back. The Conservatives seem likely to perform perhaps significantly above the national average in this seat. The days of a uniform swing across the country are gone - this seat has the make up of people that might well ! provide an upset. The final factor worth considering is the strength of the local Conservative canidate. He has extensive exprience in the Public sector (NHS & Local Government) and private sector.(running his own business) There is a general perception that the Labour canidate is without doubt a nice man, but it is too easily influenced by the party machine at Westmister and therefore not a strong voice. The Conservative canidat is cearly not a 'career politician'. With all these factors and the others mentioned in previosu comments I feel that the Vale of Clwyd will go Consevative.
22/05/01 Email:
In light of the interest shown in the Vale of Clwyd, I am surprised it has stayed as a Labour prediction. In light of what has been said, it seems to close to call. Other so called '?' like Redditch and High Peak are probably less likely to go Conservative than this seat!

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Last Updated 23 May 2001
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