Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Newport West

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Paul P. Flynn
Conservative Party:
Dr. William Morgan
Liberal Democratic Party:
Veronica K. Watkins
Plaid Cymru:
Anthony Salkeld
UK Independence Party:
Hugh P. Moelwyn Hughes

Incumbent:
Paul Flynn

97 Result:
Paul Flynn
24,33160.5%
Peter Clarke
9,79424.4%
Stan Wilson
3,9079.7%
Huw Jackson
6481.61%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
40,20274.57%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
24,13953.1%
16,36036.0%
4,2969.5%
00.0%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
45,44882.2%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1621.0%
16-2412.4%
25-3920.2%
40-6527.4%
65 <19.0%

Ethnic Origin:
White96.5%
Black0.7%
Indian/Pakistani1.7%
Other non-white1.1%

Employment:
Full Time62.4%
Part Time15.8%
Self Employed9.1%
Government Schemes1.5%
Unemployed11.2%

Household SEG:
I - Professional8.2%
II - Managerial/Technical31.7%
III - Skilled (non-manual)13.5%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)26.3%
IV - Partly Skilled12.8%
V - Unskilled4.4%

Misc:
Own Residence65.4%
Rent Residence33.2%
Own Car(s)63.2%
Submissions
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17/05/01 JR Email:
To look at the result last time you'd never guess this had actually been a Tory seat in the eighties. It was won in the 1983 Thatcher landslide by Mark Robinson (a rare moderate in that year's intake) but as in several other Welsh seats where they had scored surprise wins in 1983 (Clwyd South West, Cardiff West, Bridgend) they failed to put roots down and lost four years later. Robinson migrated to Somerton and Frome in the West Country in time for the 1992 election (though he again became a one term MP, losing to the LibDems in 1997). Paul Flynn - an outspoken maverick who supports the legalisation of cannabis - now has a safe Labour seat.

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Last Updated 20 May 2001
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