Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Newport East

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Alan T. Howarth
Conservative Party:
Ian Oakley
Liberal Democratic Party:
Alistair Cameron
Plaid Cymru:
Madoc Batcup
UK Independence Party:
Neal Reynolds

Incumbent:
Rt Hon Alan Howarth CBE

97 Result:
Roy Hughes
21,48157.7%
David Evans
7,95821.4%
Alistair Cameron
3,88010.4%
Chris Holland
7211.94%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
37,25873.06%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
23,05055.0%
13,15131.4%
4,99111.9%
00.0%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
41,90881.3%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1622.3%
16-2412.4%
25-3922.2%
40-6526.2%
65 <17.0%

Ethnic Origin:
White97.1%
Black0.5%
Indian/Pakistani1.7%
Other non-white0.7%

Employment:
Full Time62.9%
Part Time16.3%
Self Employed8.6%
Government Schemes1.6%
Unemployed10.6%

Household SEG:
I - Professional4.5%
II - Managerial/Technical25.7%
III - Skilled (non-manual)11.5%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)31.6%
IV - Partly Skilled15.6%
V - Unskilled7.2%

Misc:
Own Residence71.9%
Rent Residence27.2%
Own Car(s)65.0%
Submissions
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17/05/01 JR Email:
The last-minute retirement of veteran local MP Roy Hughes just before the last election offered a safe berth to Alan Howarth, the former Tory MP and minister who crossed the floor in 1995. The controversy over Howarth's candidature in a traditional industrial Labour seat which had been hard-hit under the Tories meant that the pro-Labour swing was somewhat below the national average, and Arthur Scargill (leader of the Socialist Labour Party and President of what remains of the National Union of Mineworkers) actually managed to save his deposit as a 'Socialist Labour' candidate. In any case the fuss has now died down; expect no election excitement in Newport this time.

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Last Updated 20 May 2001
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© 1999-2001 Milton Chan

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