Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Montgomeryshire

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Paul M. Davies
Conservative Party:
David R. Jones
Liberal Democratic Party:
Lembit Ípik
Plaid Cymru:
David M. Senior
UK Independence Party:
David W. Rowlands

Incumbent:
Lembit Opik

97 Result:
Angharad Davies
6,10919.1%
Glyn Davies
8,34426.1%
Lembit Opik
14,64745.9%
Helen Jones
16085.04%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
31,92574.91%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
4,11512.4%
10,82232.7%
16,03148.5%
1,5814.8%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
33,05778.5%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1619.4%
16-2411.8%
25-3920.0%
40-6528.2%
65 <20.6%

Ethnic Origin:
White99.4%
Black0.2%
Indian/Pakistani0.1%
Other non-white0.3%

Employment:
Full Time53.5%
Part Time14.0%
Self Employed24.8%
Government Schemes1.5%
Unemployed6.2%

Household SEG:
I - Professional3.3%
II - Managerial/Technical37.9%
III - Skilled (non-manual)9.9%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)27.1%
IV - Partly Skilled15.7%
V - Unskilled4.3%

Misc:
Own Residence66.0%
Rent Residence30.2%
Own Car(s)78.5%
Submissions
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21/04/01 JR Email:robertsat13@cwcom.net
A vintage Liberal seat, held during the fifties and sixties by Clement Davies who was Liberal leader in the party's bleak years after the Second World War. It voted Tory in 79, but that proved to be a fluke and it returned to the Liberal fold in 1983. The LDs had no problem holding on in 1997 despite the retirement of the LibDem incumbent Alex Carlisle. Lembit Opik - a relatively highprofile LD and one of their youngest MPs - will win this one again.

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Last Updated 2 April 2001
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