Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Islwyn

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
J. Donnelly Touhig
Conservative Party:
Philip Howells
Liberal Democratic Party:
Plaid Cymru:
Leigh Thomas

Incumbent:
Don Touhig

97 Result:
Don Touhig
26,99574.2%
Russell Walters
2,8647.9%
Chris Worker
3,0648.4%
Darren Jones
22726.24%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
36,40472.03%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
30,90874.3%
6,18014.9%
2,3525.7%
1,6063.9%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
41,59380.1%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1620.6%
16-2413.0%
25-3920.8%
40-6527.3%
65 <18.2%

Ethnic Origin:
White99.3%
Black0.1%
Indian/Pakistani0.3%
Other non-white0.3%

Employment:
Full Time65.7%
Part Time14.6%
Self Employed8.0%
Government Schemes1.8%
Unemployed9.8%

Household SEG:
I - Professional3.8%
II - Managerial/Technical21.8%
III - Skilled (non-manual)11.7%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)35.5%
IV - Partly Skilled17.2%
V - Unskilled7.7%

Misc:
Own Residence71.6%
Rent Residence27.4%
Own Car(s)65.9%
Submissions
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21/04/01 JR Email:robertsat13@cwcom.net
This seat was held by former Labour Party leader Neil Kinnock from 1970 until he became a European Commissioner in 1995. It is a rock-hard Labour seat - but Plaid Cymru astonished everyone by increasing their vote from 6% to about 45% in the Assembly election and winning the seat. PC are marketing themselves as a 'socialist' party which should appeal to the heartland Labour voters in a seat like this. I think the PC victory in 99 was a combination of understandable Labour complacency and a protest vote (PC ran Labour very close in byelections in similar Welsh Valley seats to this in the late 60s, without ever putting down any real roots). Seats like this will stay Labour but cannot and should not be taken for granted

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Last Updated 23 April 2001
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