Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Gower

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Martin P. Caton
Conservative Party:
John G. Bushell
Liberal Democratic Party:
Sheila Waye
Plaid Cymru:
Sian M. Caiach

Incumbent:
Martin Caton

97 Result:
Martin Caton
23,31353.8%
Alun Cairns
10,30623.8%
Howard Evans
5,62413.0%
Elwyn Williams
22265.14%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
43,33675.12%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
23,48550.1%
16,43735.1%
4,6559.9%
1,6393.5%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
46,85280.2%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1619.0%
16-2411.3%
25-3918.7%
40-6528.6%
65 <22.3%

Ethnic Origin:
White99.4%
Black0.1%
Indian/Pakistani0.1%
Other non-white0.4%

Employment:
Full Time61.5%
Part Time16.6%
Self Employed12.3%
Government Schemes1.7%
Unemployed8.0%

Household SEG:
I - Professional9.3%
II - Managerial/Technical33.2%
III - Skilled (non-manual)14.1%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)25.4%
IV - Partly Skilled12.6%
V - Unskilled3.1%

Misc:
Own Residence79.8%
Rent Residence19.0%
Own Car(s)75.0%
Submissions
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14/05/01 M. A. Price Email:maprice@coastnet.com
I have been waiting for someone to post about Gower for quite some time, but to no avail. As a Canadian, I am unfamiliar with the local goings-on in the area, but since both my parents grew up near Pennard Castle (which I believe is in this constituency), I will speak up :) Martin Caton won about 54% of the vote last time and is running again for Labour. Labour will most certainly hold this seat.
18/05/01 PSR Email:
The last contributor says that they're desperate for someone to predict Gower. Well here goes: the fact that Martin Caton has a majority of 13,000 and that Plaid Cymru are not very strong here suggests that it will be an easy Labour hold.
18/05/01 M. A. Price Email:
I am a Canadian and have not been to Wales in many years, but my parents grew up in this riding (near Pennard Castle), so I will comment. It appears that Martin Caton, with over 53% of the vote last time, should have no trouble holding this constituency for Labour. If anyone can comment on local issues that may impact this riding, I would love to hear them.

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Last Updated 20 May 2001
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