Election Prediction Project
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British General Election
Cardiff West

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Kevin J. Brennan
Conservative Party:
Andrew Davies
Liberal Democratic Party:
Jacqueline-Anne Gasson
Plaid Cymru:
Prof. I. Delme Bowen

Incumbent:
Rt Hon Rhodri Morgan

97 Result:
Rhodri Morgan
24,29760.3%
Simon Hoare
8,66921.5%
Jacqui Gasson
4,36610.8%
Gwenllian Carr
19494.84%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
40,27769.21%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
24,31953.2%
15,02832.9%
5,00510.9%
1,1782.6%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
45,71476.9%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1621.7%
16-2412.6%
25-3922.5%
40-6524.7%
65 <18.5%

Ethnic Origin:
White93.8%
Black1.6%
Indian/Pakistani3.0%
Other non-white1.6%

Employment:
Full Time60.8%
Part Time15.5%
Self Employed9.4%
Government Schemes1.7%
Unemployed12.5%

Household SEG:
I - Professional7.8%
II - Managerial/Technical29.1%
III - Skilled (non-manual)15.3%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)23.8%
IV - Partly Skilled14.1%
V - Unskilled5.3%

Misc:
Own Residence65.4%
Rent Residence33.4%
Own Car(s)59.4%
Submissions
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26/04/01 JR Email:robertsat13@cwcom.net
This seat was held for almost forty years by George Thomas, the Speaker of the House of Commons in the late 70s and early 80s. As convention dictated, Thomas was not opposed by the major parties and when he retired in 1983 this seat was effectively a 'blank canvas'. It was won by Tory Stefan Terlezki in the Thatcher landslide that year, but in 1987 normal service was resumed (in Wales at least) and Rhodri Morgan gained the seat for Labour. Morgan is popular - when elected to the Assembly in 1999 he outpolled the Labour list in Cardiff West by about 5000 votes. He's now First Minister of Wales and will be stepping down from Westminster. That may shave some votes off Labour's majority but they shouldn't struggle in a seat they have only ever lost in the most disastrous circumstances.
12/05/01 N Starling Email:Starling@nejs.fsworld.co.uk
I can't help but feel that the very photogenic nature of the Lib Dem candidate, together with the way Labour have treated students, wil help the Lib Dems win here. Cardiff City Council are not popular, and the Lib Dems from Cardiff Central have been most active in campaigning against Labour on the Council.
17/05/01 R.Parnell Email:
Labour candidate Kevin Brennan is a well-respected local figure, a close associate of Rhodri Morgan whom he resembles in his (for a politician)unusual tendency to be straight and honest. I think he may even have been Morgan's election agent in 97.The student factor is unlikely to be anywhere near as marked in this constituency as neighbouring Cardiff Central which is home to both Cardiff University and UWIC. Home win for Labour here.

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Last Updated 20 May 2001
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