Election Prediction Project
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British General Election
Cardiff Central

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
John O. Jones
Conservative Party:
Gregory Walker
Liberal Democratic Party:
Jennifer Willott
Plaid Cymru:
Richard Grigg
Green Party:
Stephen Bartley
UK Independence Party:
Frank Hughes
Socialist Alliance:
Julian Goss

Incumbent:
Jon Owen Jones

97 Result:
Jon Owen Jones
18,46443.7%
David Melding
8,47020.0%
Jenny Randerson
10,54124.9%
Wayne Vernon
15043.56%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
42,25370.01%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
18,01442.0%
14,54933.9%
9,17021.4%
7481.7%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
42,91673.1%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1619.5%
16-2417.1%
25-3923.9%
40-6523.6%
65 <15.9%

Ethnic Origin:
White91.9%
Black1.7%
Indian/Pakistani3.8%
Other non-white2.5%

Employment:
Full Time62.3%
Part Time15.4%
Self Employed9.4%
Government Schemes1.6%
Unemployed11.3%

Household SEG:
I - Professional11.4%
II - Managerial/Technical33.4%
III - Skilled (non-manual)16.4%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)21.3%
IV - Partly Skilled10.0%
V - Unskilled3.9%

Misc:
Own Residence68.5%
Rent Residence30.4%
Own Car(s)63.1%
Submissions
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20/04/01 NG Email:
Cardiff Central is the smallest, most urban of all Welsh constituencies and has the highest student vote in Wales. All of this will come into play when deciding the next MP. The Lib Dems have long cherished hopes of grabbing this seat and in 1997 a Tory meltdown in Wales put the Lib Dems in second place to Labour. Since then they have been working furiously to wrest control from Owen Jones. The Lib Dems have done very well in local council elections and, most importantly of all, they actually won this seat from Labour in the Assembly elections of 1999. There's no guarantee that the Lib Dems will do quite that well this time round, but it's clear that the Tories have now fallen by the wayside here and that it's going to be a pretty close fight between the Lib Dems and Labour.
21/04/01 JR Email:robertsat13@cwcom.net
This was a Tory seat until it was won by Jon Owen Jones for Labour in 1992. However, since then the LibDems have been on the rise. They beat the Tories for second place in 1997, and won by about 4000 in the 1999 Assembly election. I gather they are targeting it as a gain this time round but I don't think they'll manage. The 99 result was probably a product of midterm protest vote and the row over the leadership of Alun Michael that meant Labour did badly across Wales.
01/05/01 PDR Email:
This one will be tighter than many people think. The victory in 1999 will provide a strong base for the liberal democrats and despite a strong challenge from both Lab and Con they held the council seat when the AM stood down on becoming a minister. They also hold most of the Council seats so are in a good position to squeeze the conservative vote. Result may be down to a few hundred votes either way this time
02/05/01 Smithy Email:smithy@come-on-england.co.uk
Despite my email address I am a regular visitor to Cardiff. I have spotted the excellent Lib Dem literature and feel that Labour have had it in Cardiff Central. A strong Lib Dem campaign shoul secure them another win in this seat if enough Tory voters don't waste their votes.
03/05/01 Pete Email:warposters@yahoo.com
I read last week in the local paper, that the Cardiff Central seat is one of the top ten seats that are expected to fall from Labour's grasp. As a constituency, Cardiff Central encompasses a large proportion of students. On 1st March, the NUS organised a national shutdown day, in protest at tuition fees. This was very high profile. However, only Miss Willott was present to support the students. The current labour MP was not present. In such a marginal seat, students will not be coming out to vote for a labour party who introduced these fees. Instead, it is more likely that they will flood to the polling booths in favour of sensible policies that will not increase student hardship, rather than policies which caused the recent shutdown of British Universities.
31/05/01 A.S. Email:adma@interlog.com
How fascinatingly Islingtonian, for LD to rise rather proudly from Tory ashes as Cardiff Centre's opposition party of record. (And JOJ's vote only increased by less than a couple of %'s in '97.). It's a sleeper, all right--but not, at this point, a victory. Have faith, Lib Dems; it took your party several elections to hit upon the 50-seat formula in '97...
06/06/01 JL Email:
Talk of the student vote here might be relevant if the election had taken place in May. I don't know the constituency, but I would be surprised if more than a quarter of the student vote turns out tomorrow. In my own area that'll certainly be the case.

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Last Updated 7 June 2001
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