Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Caernarfon

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Martin R. Eaglestone
Conservative Party:
Bronwen Naish
Liberal Democratic Party:
Melvyn ab Owain
Plaid Cymru:
Hywel Williams

Incumbent:
Rt Hon Dafydd Wigley

97 Result:
Eifion Williams
9,66728.4%
Elwyn Williams
4,23012.4%
Mary McQueen
1,6865.0%
Dafydd Wigley
1761651.80%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
34,01072.65%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
5,64115.5%
6,96319.2%
2,1015.8%
21,43959.0%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
36,31777.1%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1619.2%
16-2412.4%
25-3918.4%
40-6527.1%
65 <22.9%

Ethnic Origin:
White99.6%
Black0.1%
Indian/Pakistani0.1%
Other non-white0.2%

Employment:
Full Time52.8%
Part Time14.1%
Self Employed19.4%
Government Schemes2.5%
Unemployed11.2%

Household SEG:
I - Professional4.9%
II - Managerial/Technical30.7%
III - Skilled (non-manual)12.1%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)29.1%
IV - Partly Skilled13.4%
V - Unskilled5.9%

Misc:
Own Residence70.2%
Rent Residence27.5%
Own Car(s)72.8%
Submissions
Submit Information here

21/04/01 JR Email:robertsat13@cwcom.net
Held since 1974 by the high-profile and popular former PC leader Dafydd Wigley, who is retiring for health reasons. This is an overwhelmingly welsh speaking area and is staunch in support of nationalism in general rather than just a particular nationalist candidate. Voted 60% yes in the 97 devolution referendum - one of only two areas in North Wales to do so (the other was Ynys Mon/Anglesey, by 51%-49%). New PC candidate should almost certainly win but it may be a closer call this time.
31/05/01 KG Email:
Almost certainly a Plaid Cymru hold with I predict a reduced majority as the well known Dafydd Wigley has stood down this time, but not much change. The lib Dems will be lucky to save their deposit and there seems to be little impetus from Labour and the Conservatives although the secretary of state for Wales has been seen here recently (whatever he does nowadays).

Submit Information here
Back to Wales Index
Back to British General Election Prediction Index
Last Updated 31 MAy 2001
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© 1999-2001 Milton Chan

Email Webmaster