Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Wells

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Andrew Merryfield
Conservative Party:
Rt. Hon. David P. Heathcoat-Amory
Liberal Democratic Party:
Graham Oakes
UK Independence Party:
Andrew S. Reed

Incumbent:
Rt Hon David Heathcoat-Amory

97 Result:
Michael Eavis
10,20418.1%
David Heathcote-Amory
22,20839.4%
Peter Gold
21,68038.5%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
56,38078.11%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
6,12610.6%
28,62049.6%
21,97138.0%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
57,75982.4%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1618.9%
16-2411.4%
25-3918.6%
40-6528.0%
65 <23.1%

Ethnic Origin:
White99.4%
Black0.2%
Indian/Pakistani0.1%
Other non-white0.3%

Employment:
Full Time56.9%
Part Time17.4%
Self Employed17.9%
Government Schemes0.9%
Unemployed6.9%

Household SEG:
I - Professional5.8%
II - Managerial/Technical35.4%
III - Skilled (non-manual)11.9%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)28.0%
IV - Partly Skilled13.5%
V - Unskilled4.3%

Misc:
Own Residence76.5%
Rent Residence21.3%
Own Car(s)78.6%
Submissions
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20/04/01 NG Email:
In theory, the Tories shouldn't lose seats at the next election. After all, 1997 was supposedly their 'most disastrous election result' in history. But the Tory revival has not been as strong as many people imagined and the Romsey by-election has shown that the Lib Dems can still, with a squeeze of the Labour vote, still score the odd stunning victory. If the Lib Dems are to win a couple of seats from the Tories on the night (if only by default of a small swing from Labour to the Lib Dems), one of them will almost certainly be Wells. David Heathcoat-Amory is defending a very slim majority and is vulnerable to a tiny amount of tactical voting. It all depends on whether the Lib Dems can, in reality, muster those votes. One of the tightest and potentially most fascinating contests of the night.
29/04/01 H Morgan Email:hywelmorgan@cix.co.uk
The Labour vote in Wells last time was almost freakishly high for a Lib Dem/Tory marginal largely due to the celebrity status of Michael Eavis (who runs the Glastonbury Festival). He isn't the candidate this time making it much easier to squeeze the Laboru vote.
24/05/01 Alastair Matlock Email:
David Heathcoat-Amory is a member of the Conservative Shadow-Cabinet and has proven an able parliamentarian. I don't forecast anywhere near as close a contest here as in 1997 when the Conservatives were suffering their worst defeat in more than a century. Conservative Hold.
26/05/01 Email:
A Lib Dem win here is now almost a certainty. The labour vote Micheal Eavis secured in 1997 has now all but crumbled.

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Last Updated 6 June 2001
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