Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Torbay

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
John McKay
Conservative Party:
Christian Sweeting
Liberal Democratic Party:
Adrian M. Sanders
UK Independence Party:
Graham J. Booth

Incumbent:
Adrian Sanders

97 Result:
Mike Morey
7,92314.9%
Rupert Allason
21,08239.5%
Adrian Sanders
21,09439.6%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
53,32273.79%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
5,5039.6%
28,62449.9%
22,83739.8%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
57,38981.1%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1616.6%
16-2411.5%
25-3917.7%
40-6526.5%
65 <27.8%

Ethnic Origin:
White99.2%
Black0.2%
Indian/Pakistani0.2%
Other non-white0.5%

Employment:
Full Time51.3%
Part Time16.2%
Self Employed19.7%
Government Schemes1.6%
Unemployed11.2%

Household SEG:
I - Professional4.9%
II - Managerial/Technical30.4%
III - Skilled (non-manual)16.2%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)26.3%
IV - Partly Skilled15.0%
V - Unskilled5.3%

Misc:
Own Residence77.5%
Rent Residence21.2%
Own Car(s)66.7%
Submissions
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12/04/01 NG Email:
If the Tories win one seat on election night, it will probably be Torbay. Adrian Sanders is defending a majority of just 12 and things don't look that great. The Lib Dems lost heavily in 1999 European and local elections and there is only a small Labour vote to be squeezed. However, the Tories aren't expected to put a huge effort into winning Torbay, believing it will automatically return to them, and Lib Dem will profit from their existing strength and high profile in the South West. This gives Sanders a narrow chance of clinging onto his seat in 2001.
18/04/01 NG Email:
With news that the Tory candidate for Torbay has been arrested on fire arms charges, have the Tories thrown away their chances in what is a highly winnable seat? Or will the Tory candidate's apparent defence of law and order win over some floating voters? The plot thickens ...
02/05/01 Sean Fear Email:fear_sean@hotmail.com
The Conservatives will win by at least 4,000 votes. The Liberal Democrats actually polled a slightly lower vote share in the South West in 1997 than in 1992. They benefitted from tactical voting. I predict that tactical voting will be less of an issue in this election than the previous one. The Conservatives will also pick up some of the 1,700 votes that went to UKIP in 1997. Finally, the Liberal Democrats will suffer from being the most Europhile party in this most Eurosceptic of regions. All in all, a comfortable Conservative victory.
15/05/01 JL Email:
If the Tories do not regain this seat they face wipeout. The LibDem local council made itself extremely unpopular, and there are few signs of a recovery. It has been suggested that the LibDems know that they face defeat. The firearms offence was trivial, and it seems probable that local residents are more likely to sympathise with the Tory candidate's predicament than vote against him because of it.
14/05/01 JB Email:
The personal popularity of Adrian Sanders as a local man who is widely acknowledged to have worked a great deal harder for local people than the previous Tory MPs for the constituency set him in good stead to hold the seat despite the slim majority he is defending.
The arrest of Christian Sweeting on charges relating to threatening people with an airgun shortly before the start of the campaign (and the day before a planned photo call on Law and Order at the local Police station!)will shoot a large hole in the hapless Tory candidate's prospects, probably sinking them entirely. He has been ordered to appear before magistrates on these charges during the campaign. This is not the sort of thing that goes down well with the genteel largely-retired population of the Torbay resorts!
22/05/01 Alastair Matlock Email:ahmatlock@execulink.com
As NG has said, if the Conservatives are to regain anything at all on polling day Torbay along with Winchester are it. Novelist Rupert Allason was defeated here by 12 votes by Adrian Sanders on the strength of an 'Anybody but the Tories' movement seen throughout Britain. The firearms charges against the local Conservative candidate have been dropped, and he will will a solid victory on Election night.
03/06/01 PSR Email:
Unless you actually live in Devon it is very difficult to understand just how popular Adrian Sanders is. If I knew nothing about the seat I would, like some previous contributors, predict an easy Tory gain. However, Adrian Sanders is probably one of the hardest working MPs (no, I'm not a member of the Lib Dems!) and one of the most liked (even Tory councillors are prepared to hold surgerys with him) of any party. I accept that it will take a big tactical vote to save him but I think he'll get it. P.S I hope the Tory doesn't shoot me for saying this!

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Last Updated 6 June 2001
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