Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Salisbury

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Susan Mallory
Conservative Party:
S. Robert Key
Liberal Democratic Party:
Yvonne Emmerson-Pearce
Green Party:
Hamish Soutar
UK Independence Party:
Malcolm Wood

Incumbent:
Robert Key

97 Result:
Ricky Rogers
10,24217.6%
Robert Key
25,01242.9%
Yvonne Emmerson-P
18,73632.2%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
58,23973.75%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
5,4839.0%
31,54652.0%
22,57337.2%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
60,65479.6%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1619.1%
16-2413.0%
25-3921.0%
40-6526.8%
65 <20.1%

Ethnic Origin:
White99.1%
Black0.2%
Indian/Pakistani0.2%
Other non-white0.5%

Employment:
Full Time64.3%
Part Time16.3%
Self Employed13.3%
Government Schemes0.9%
Unemployed5.3%

Household SEG:
I - Professional6.9%
II - Managerial/Technical30.6%
III - Skilled (non-manual)13.4%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)22.0%
IV - Partly Skilled11.9%
V - Unskilled4.5%

Misc:
Own Residence62.6%
Rent Residence28.9%
Own Car(s)77.1%
Submissions
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11/05/01 Harry Hayfield Email:harry@hhayfield.fsnet.co.uk
A possible Lib Dem or UKIP gain here from Conservative, depending on the turnout. UKIP did very well in 1997 as did the Lib Dems. Could all rest on the Labour vote and whether they vote tactically
13/05/01 Sean Fear Email:fear_sean@hotmail.com
Same result as North Wiltshire. The Conservatives took about 20 seats off the Lib Dems in the local elections of May 1999, and they'll have no difficulty holding the seat.
16/05/01 Sue Mallory Email:Sue@salisburylabour.org.uk
Labour are the only party in Salisbury who can beat Robert Key. In 1997 the Labour vote increased by 86%. The Lib Dem vote fell by 17%. The Tory vote fell by 24%. Labour overtook the Lib Dems in the 1999 European election.
22/05/01 Alex Macfie Email:alex@flagboy.demon.co.uk
Yes, the Labour vote increased last time, but the LibDems are still the 2nd-placed party. It was not unusual in 1997 for Labour to increase their share of the vote in Con-LD marginals: there are two main reasons for this happening: ignorance of the local situation, which was often unclear due to boundary changes; and the "Blair effect" meaning that many people switched straight from Tory to Labour on the strength of the national Labour campaign. These factors are unlikely to manifest themselves this time around. The LibDems are the clear challengers to the Tories, and should take some tactical votes from Labour. Probably a Tory hold, but the LibDems do stand a fighting chance.
03/06/01 John Ellis Email:
Major local election issue in Salisbury is Transport and the urgent need for a bypass. The local Association of Council Taxpayers (ACT) has been promoting a plan for the area solving all the main transport problems and others not on the government agenda for lack of funds, which would be simple and save as much as 100m but local politicians are tid to party or personal limitations which they will nopt discuss openly. But, the Libdem candidate is impressed and noted strong public support. Candidates not taking this plan on board acne be expected to lose ground especially in areas affected by the meagre and ill-founded government plan supposed to replace the Labour cancelled bypass of 1997.

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Last Updated 6 June 2001
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