Election Prediction Project
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British General Election
Plymouth, Devonport

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
David C. Jamieson
Conservative Party:
John Glen
Liberal Democratic Party:
Keith J. Baldry
UK Independence Party:
Alan Whitton
Socialist Alliance:
Antony Staunton

Incumbent:
David Jamieson

97 Result:
David Jamieson
31,62960.9%
Anthony Johnson
12,56224.2%
Richard Copus
5,57010.7%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
51,96369.76%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
27,87747.0%
21,11135.6%
7,83013.2%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
59,26378.4%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1622.8%
16-2413.9%
25-3922.4%
40-6524.6%
65 <16.3%

Ethnic Origin:
White99.3%
Black0.3%
Indian/Pakistani0.1%
Other non-white0.4%

Employment:
Full Time62.7%
Part Time16.6%
Self Employed7.2%
Government Schemes2.4%
Unemployed11.1%

Household SEG:
I - Professional3.8%
II - Managerial/Technical15.4%
III - Skilled (non-manual)12.3%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)29.9%
IV - Partly Skilled18.7%
V - Unskilled6.7%

Misc:
Own Residence57.0%
Rent Residence39.4%
Own Car(s)65.0%
Submissions
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08/05/01 JR Email:
A seat with an interesting electoral history. It was held by Michael Foot (the Labour leader who led his party to its worst ever defeat in 1983) from 1945 to 1955, then by a Tory, and then regained for Labour in 1966 by a young locally born and bred medical doctor, David Owen. Owen was a leading figure on the moderate wing of the party who could not stomach the flirtation of some in the party with hard-left extremism, and was one of the Gang of Four who formed the SDP in 1981. Plymouth Devonport proved loyal to Owen, and he held it with a bigger majority in 1983 than he had done as a Labour candidate (while fellow gang of 4 members Shirley Williams and Bill Rogers lost their seats). However, when the SDP collapsed in 1992 voters did not heed Owen's advice to vote Tory and swung dramatically back to Labour. Government Whip David Jamieson should be safe but Plymouth has a knack for doing its own thing electorally. In 1987 it swung heavily against a nationally popular Tory government, electing a Labour city council locally and producing big votes for Owen's SDP in the general election. The Tories grabbed Plymouth Council back after thirteen years' opposition in May 2000, winning some quite deprived wards. Labour should not be complacent.
03/06/01 PSR Email:
With a majority of nearly 20,000, it is the safest seat in Devon and will be an easy Labour hold!

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Last Updated 4 June 2001
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