Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Christchurch

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Judith Begg
Conservative Party:
Christopher R. Chope
Liberal Democratic Party:
Dorothy J. Webb

Incumbent:
Christopher Chope OBE

97 Result:
Charles Mannam
3,8846.9%
Christopher Chope
26,09546.4%
Diana Maddock
23,93042.6%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
56,19978.61%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
6,67812.1%
35,23763.8%
12,91323.4%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
55,24680.8%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1614.7%
16-249.1%
25-3915.3%
40-6526.6%
65 <34.3%

Ethnic Origin:
White99.4%
Black0.1%
Indian/Pakistani0.2%
Other non-white0.3%

Employment:
Full Time58.2%
Part Time17.5%
Self Employed16.8%
Government Schemes0.7%
Unemployed6.8%

Household SEG:
I - Professional7.2%
II - Managerial/Technical36.7%
III - Skilled (non-manual)14.6%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)24.5%
IV - Partly Skilled12.0%
V - Unskilled3.2%

Misc:
Own Residence85.2%
Rent Residence13.7%
Own Car(s)80.9%
Submissions
Submit Information here

19/04/01 NG Email:
The Christchurch by-election in 1993 was a disaster for the Tories. In what was a shock even for the Lib Dems, the centre party stormed to a massive victory and Diana Maddock could well have hoped (despite a not altogether promising result in 1992) to hang on here in 1997. Sadly, by-elections do not necessarily decide general elections (watch out Sandra Gidley in Romsey!) and she lost by 2 and a bit thousand votes. Her successor will face a real struggle to squeeze any more votes out of the tiny Labour vote here but there is just a chance that a small swing from Labour could just be enough to allow the Lib Dems back into a seat which they were surprised to win and perhaps also surprised to lose again.
05/05/01 LB Email:
Conservative hold with considerably increased majority. Sensational by-elections tend to disrupt normal patterns for a couple of elections and this is likely in Christchurch. The Lib Dems came close to holding it in 1997 but now their challenge will probably slip back as voters return to their normal allegiance - both Labour and Conservative voters. Unlike Newbury the LDs have not maintained strength in local elections and were massively outvoted in the Euro election.
05/06/01 A.S. Email:adma@interlog.com
Goes into this as one of the Dorset C-LD marginals--but very much by default, because of the LD byelection gain that was ripe for reversal. In fact, it's less like the Liberalising South West than the westernmost outpost of the blue-to-the-bitter-end South East of sundry Arundels, Chichesters, Tunbridge Wellses...

Submit Information here
Back to South West Index
Back to British General Election Prediction Index
Last Updated 6 June 2001
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© 1999-2001 Milton Chan

Email Webmaster