Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Guildford

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Joyce Still
Conservative Party:
Nicholas F. St. Aubyn
Liberal Democratic Party:
Susan O. Doughty

Incumbent:
Nick St Aubyn

97 Result:
Joseph Burns
9,94517.5%
Nick St Aubyn
24,23042.5%
Margaret Sharp
19,43934.1%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
56,95875.40%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
6,73211.4%
32,82055.4%
19,47832.9%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
59,25977.6%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1618.4%
16-2413.1%
25-3922.3%
40-6527.1%
65 <19.1%

Ethnic Origin:
White97.9%
Black0.3%
Indian/Pakistani0.6%
Other non-white1.2%

Employment:
Full Time64.7%
Part Time16.1%
Self Employed13.5%
Government Schemes0.5%
Unemployed5.2%

Household SEG:
I - Professional12.7%
II - Managerial/Technical39.9%
III - Skilled (non-manual)15.9%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)17.8%
IV - Partly Skilled9.2%
V - Unskilled3.6%

Misc:
Own Residence72.4%
Rent Residence25.1%
Own Car(s)78.6%
Submissions
Submit Information here

18/04/01 Matthew Hancock Email:
With a fight between Labour and the Lib Dems predicted, and with the MP's results over he las our years in the Constituency, it's hard to see either Labour or the Lib Dems beating the inclumbent.
27/04/01 NMF Email:
Liberal Democrat Sue Doughty has got the bit between her teeth and is working solidly to build on the base built by previous candidate Margaret Sharp. The Lib Dems came a strong second last time and there remains a sixeable third placed Labour vote to squeeze. The Lib Dems are working the Labour areas of the constituency diligently and as long as enough former Labour voters switch the Tories could lose here.
03/05/01 Matthew Wright Email:mrd_wright@psion.net
As a former Conservative voter now supporting the Liberal Democrats, I would say that the Conservatives will be lucky to hold on to this seat. The considerable 'old' Labour vote, which was very keen last time for the first Labour Government in 18 years, is now largely disillusioned with 'new' Labour and its Tory policies, and is likely to vote tactically in quite large numbers. In addition, the core Tory support is deeply depressed with the Conservatives' weak and unpopular leadership, and many traditonal Conservative voters will probably stay at home.
06/05/01 P Thomas Email:rainbowchazer@hotmail.com
It certainly is close here. I've heard both positive and negative feedback in recent days as I walk the area distributing my catalogs. But the attitude depends on which area of Guildford you live in, the northwestern side seemed (last I saw any posters) to be much more Labour orientated, there were a few Tory posters up on the southern and eastern sides of the town but the main displayed support overall seemed to be for Lib Dems. I think the issue of the incinerator may well decide the winning party, as local opinion is unlikely to elect anyone pro this contentious scheme.
22/05/01 Vasilis Kapsalis Email:vasilis.kapsalis@btinternet.com
The fight against the Giant Incinerator in Slyfield has been taken up vigorously by Nick St Aubyn (Conservative) - this is certain to give him a boost in popular support in the run up to and on Election Day. In contrast the Liberal Democrats have been publicly disintegrating. The Lib Dem Council Group (the party's work horse) has suffered eight resignations in as many years. The Lib Dem run Council must also shoulder a great deal of responsibility for the Threatened Incinerator - having singularly failed to achieve any decent level of recycling. This is a fact widely recognised on the door step. Nick St Aubyn maintained a reasonably secure majority in 1997 - with Conservative supporters far more likely to turnout this year, it is virtually certain that his majority will get into five figures.
22/05/01 J Perry Email:
The Lib Dems are likely to come third! The reality in Guildford is that actual support for the Lib Dems fell in 1997 - they only grew their percentage as Tory voters stayed home. There is no incentive to tactical vote this time, as it is Labour who are in Government. People will therefore either support the Government directly or will register their protest by voting Conservative. I expect this time Tory Voters will come out in large numbers and they will poll a majority of over 10,000. Labour will definitely take support off the Lib Dems, who are divided and could well push the Lib Dems into third place as voters register disapproval with local Lib Dems.
23/05/01 AH Email:
There is no chance of the LDs winning in Guildford. The LDs are conspicuous by their lack of effort - the only indication they exist at all are their garish posters
28/05/01 Mike Williams Email:
The Conservatives should easily increase their majority. With Nick St Aubyn predicting Victory in the anti-incinerator battle. people would be stupid to take the risk of voting for the Lib Dems. The Lib Dems are also rather embarassed as they have a candidate standing for County who was sacked in disgrace following the Peter Young affair (rogue trader who lost 220 million). The judgement of their Parliamentary Candidate has been brought into question after she backed the individual concerned.
29/05/01 J Matthews Email:jmatthews@escapekites.com
The Conservatives seem to be waging by far the most effective campaign. The Liberal seem somewhat aloof and appear to have given up, perhaps realising they ought to be defending seats rather than thinking they can win any.
31/05/01 J P R Email:
Following the Chruches together meeting at the Millmead Baptist Centre, it is quite clear that the Conservatives will win convincingly. I would rate the candidates in the following Order 1) Nick St Aubyn Conservative - clear in his views and spoke strongly for Guildford. 2) Sonya Porter UK Independence - Concise and knowledgeable 3) John Morris Pacifist - clear moral basis which realted well to his answers 4) Sue Doughty Liberal Democrat - seemed embarassed by her views and was a very weak performer, though did stay calm. 5) Joyce Still Labour - Lost the plot rather and rambled a lot.
05/06/01 Michael Owen Email:
It looks like it is all over for the Lib Dems. Labour have come out fighting and could improve on their third place in the 1999 Euro Elections. They need just 4% to push the Lib Dems into third - this looks very likely given the lackluster Lib Dem campaign and the weakness of their candidate.

Submit Information here
Back to South East Index
Back to British General Election Prediction Index
Last Updated 6 June 2001
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© 1999-2001 Milton Chan

Email Webmaster