Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Brighton, Pavilion

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
David Lepper
Conservative Party:
David S. Gold
Liberal Democratic Party:
Ruth L. Berry
Green Party:
Keith Taylor
UK Independence Party:
Stuart Hitchin

Incumbent:
David Lepper

97 Result:
David Lepper
26,73754.6%
Derek Spencer
13,55627.7%
Ken Blanshard
4,6449.5%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
48,95173.69%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
20,08940.2%
22,61945.3%
6,16912.3%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
49,97575.7%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1615.3%
16-2413.7%
25-3926.1%
40-6523.8%
65 <21.1%

Ethnic Origin:
White96.3%
Black0.7%
Indian/Pakistani0.9%
Other non-white2.1%

Employment:
Full Time59.7%
Part Time14.3%
Self Employed14.2%
Government Schemes1.0%
Unemployed10.9%

Household SEG:
I - Professional8.0%
II - Managerial/Technical39.0%
III - Skilled (non-manual)16.1%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)20.0%
IV - Partly Skilled11.3%
V - Unskilled3.8%

Misc:
Own Residence67.8%
Rent Residence30.6%
Own Car(s)56.8%
Submissions
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25/04/01 DH Email:
A big swing to Labour last time has given them a big majority to defend this time - the Tories do not look like taking Brighton Pavilion back for a while yet.
05/06/01 A.S. Email:adma@interlog.com
It used to be that Kemptown was more Labour-leaning than Pavilion; now, with redistribution, it's the other way around. (And Cabinet guy Derek Spencer suffered what was surely one of 1997's top five Tory-member pummelings.) Now as a novelty bid to grab Brighton's nouveau rainbow demographic, the Conservatives are running an openly gay candidate, not a bad idea--but under the present circumstances, he's cannon fodder. Portillo'll be as openly queer as they elect in 2001.

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Last Updated 6 June 2001
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