Election Prediction Project
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British General Election
Roxburgh and Berwickshire

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Lady Catherine Maxwell-Stuart
Conservative Party:
George Turnbull
Liberal Democratic Party:
Archibald J. Kirkwood
Scottish Nationalist Party:
Roderick Campbell
Scottish Socialist Party:
Amanda Millar
UK Independent Party:
Peter Neilson

Incumbent:
Archy Kirkwood

97 Result:
Helen Eadie
5,22615.0%
Douglas Younger
8,33723.9%
Archy Kirkwood
16,24346.5%
Malcolm Balfour
395911.33%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
34,93173.91%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
3,1678.8%
12,35434.2%
16,80746.5%
3,84410.6%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
36,17276.9%

Demographic Profile:

Employment:
Unemployed7.9%

Household SEG:
I - Professional2.2%
II - Managerial/Technical22.9%
III - Skilled (non-manual)17.6%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)24.5%
IV - Partly Skilled24.2%
V - Unskilled6.5%

Misc:
Own Residence49.5%
Rent Residence50.6%
Submissions
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02/05/01 JR Email:
Liberal Archie Kirkwood pulled off a big surprise when he won this former Tory stronghold in 1983. No-one was more surprised than his Tory opponent Iain Sproat. Sproat had gone on the chicken run from his marginal seat in Aberdeen South, which he thought he would lose, to a supposedly safe berth here. To make things worse for Sproat the new Tory candidate won in Aberdeen South! Kirkwood has, like many LibDem MPs, built up his majority over the years through hard work, outpolling the Tories by two-to-one last time. He is surely safe here but if he were to retire, and a Tory revival to finally materialise, this rural seat could return to the blue column.
03/05/01 NG Email:
With a reasonably comfortable 8,000 majority and a strong local reputation (not to mention an easy hold in the 1999 Scottish Elections), it would be a major shock if Archy Kirkwood lost Roxburgh and Berwickshire, a seat the Lib Dems have effectively consistently held since the 1965 by-election when Sir David Steel (now Scottish Parliament speaker) wrested the seat from the Tories (the only other time this century, apart from Romsey, when the Lib Dems won a seat from the Tories while in opposition).
03/06/01 LP Email:
I predict that the Labour vote in the Roxburgh and Berwickshire constituency will for a third election running be greatly increased. I predict that Archy Kirkwood, who is a well respected and liked MP will retain the seat. The SNP have been pretty static over the course of the last few elections here. The Conservatives are also fielding a well known figure, so this one will be interesting. I think that Labour could grap onto second place, the Conservatives grap third place and Archy Kirkwood retain his seat. I think if Labour do well as I am predicting, that they could well go on in four years time to take the seat if Archy Kirkwood retires.

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Last Updated 4 June 2001
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