Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Ross, Skye and Inverness West

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Donald Crichton
Conservative Party:
Liberal Democratic Party:
Rt. Hon. Charles P. Kennedy
Scottish Nationalist Party:
Jean Urquhart
Scottish Green Party:
Eleanor Scott
Scottish Socialist Party:
Stuart Topp
Independent:
James Crawford

Incumbent:
Rt Hon Charles Kennedy

97 Result:
Donnie Munro
11,45328.7%
Mary MacLeod
4,36810.9%
Charles Kennedy
15,47238.7%
Margaret Paterson
782119.57%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
39,95571.81%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
7,29618.9%
8,45221.9%
14,95738.7%
7,27618.8%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
38,66973.2%

Demographic Profile:

Employment:
Unemployed9.6%

Household SEG:
I - Professional3.3%
II - Managerial/Technical26.7%
III - Skilled (non-manual)20.4%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)23.8%
IV - Partly Skilled15.6%
V - Unskilled8.4%

Misc:
Own Residence56.4%
Rent Residence43.5%
Submissions
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09/04/01 EP Email:
With his name recgonition and profile, the LibDem leader probably does not have to worry about re-election. What he probably needs to sweat about is his own leadership afterward.
28/05/01 CM Email:
A poll last week put the Lib Dems third in the Highlands, with just 14%. Whilst Kennedy will undoubtedly poll better than this in his own constituency, he does seem to be in trouble. I hear that Labour are now targetting this seat heavily. Could be close.
30/05/01 A.S. Email:adma@interlog.com
I can't understand why Labour would want to target Kennedy unless they're (a) greedy, or (b) scared of something. True, Kennedy's had an under 40% mandate the last couple of elections; but he *is* leader, and if he goes under, it'll have a nice-guys-finish-lastness about it. Of course, he *could* win with 26% in a 4-way marginal; it's been done...;-)
23/05/01 Murray Ritchie and Robbie Dinwoodie The Herald
Poll warning for Tories and LibDems
It also seems fanciful to imagine that, with his personal profile as federal leader of the LibDems, Charles Kennedy could be in danger in Ross, Skye, and Inverness West, but that is a threat on paper. For new candidates in seats where sitting members have retired, such as Rae Michie in Argyll and Bute, or Robert Maclennan in Caithness, Sutherland, and Easter Ross, the trends in our poll appear alarming.
23/05/01 Malcolm Dickson, lecturer in politics at Strathclyde University The Herald
Labour truly lifted
Indeed, three out of Scotland's top 10 marginal seats has Labour challenging in second place, and they are all held by the Liberal Democrats. If the regional pattern of support indicated by System Three were to be reproduced on polling day, then Labour would pick up all three - Tweeddale, Ettrick and Lauderdale; Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross; and, most significantly of all, Ross, Skye and Inverness West, the seat of LibDem leader Charles Kennedy.
01/06/01 Finn Pollard Email:
Those predicting labour victories in these three seats (Caithness, Inverness West and Tweeddale) would do well to remember two points. Firstly, the latest opinion polls have show increased Lib Dem support to 11% and The Herald has today (June 1st) acknowledged that the party remains well placed to hold these seats. Secondly, all three seats were vulnerable for similar reasons in the 1999 elections. However, in both Tweeddale and Caithness comparatively unknown Lib Dems were returned with increased majorities. The candidacy of Donnie Munro (of Runrig) in Inverness West clearly impacted on the Lib Dem vote, given that no such factor is in play this time I predict a majority at least at the 1997 level for Charles Kennedy.
05/06/01 Sean Fear Email:fear_sean@hotmail.com
I never thought I'd want to support Labour, but a Labour win here would be delightful. It would be appropriate too, since during the course of this Parliament, the Lib Dems have provided about as much opposition to Labour as the Peasant Party did to the Communists in Ceaucescu's Rumania. However, I imagine I'm just daydreaming, and Kennedy will hold on, maybe with a reduced majority.

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Last Updated 1 June 2001
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