Election Prediction Project
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British General Election
Edinburgh, Pentlands

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Lynda M. Clark
Conservative Party:
Rt. Hon. Sir Malcolm L. Rifkind
Liberal Democratic Party:
David Walker
Scottish Nationalist Party:
Stuart Crawford
Scottish Socialist Party:
James Mearns

Incumbent:
Dr Lynda Clark

97 Result:
Linda Clark
19,67543.0%
Malcolm Rifkind
14,81332.4%
Jenny Dawe
4,57510.0%
Stewart Gibb
595213.01%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
45,74276.70%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
14,32631.2%
18,47440.2%
5,82812.7%
7,20315.7%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
45,95877.3%

Demographic Profile:

Employment:
Unemployed9.4%

Household SEG:
I - Professional7.4%
II - Managerial/Technical31.2%
III - Skilled (non-manual)28.2%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)15.8%
IV - Partly Skilled9.7%
V - Unskilled5.8%

Misc:
Own Residence67.9%
Rent Residence32.1%
Submissions
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19/04/01 Christopher J. Currie Email:8cjc1@qlink.queensu.ca
In a different era, Pentlands was one of the safest Conservative seats in Scotland. Now, when the phrase "safe Conservative seat in Scotland" has fallen into chronic disuse, it's unlikely that the party will be able to make much of a comeback. The Scottish Conservative leader couldn't win here in '99, and there's no reason to think Rifkind can win now.
13/05/01 PSR Email:
I agree. I keep reading in the press that the Tories are confident of taking this seat back yet I think Malcolm Rifkind is going to be very disappointed. Not only could the Tories not take it back in 99' but Linda Clark has had her profile raised by being made Advocate General. One day it could be a Tory gain but not this time.
14/05/01 John MacLean Email:jmaclean@prodigy.net
A narrow Conservative gain - mainly due to the sitting Labour MP. Lynda Clark is disliked within the Pentlands CLP and may have difficulties getting workers out. She is felt to be out of touch in Wester Hailes so could lose votes to the SNP there. Malcolm Rifkind is well known and should make his comeback here. If the Labour candidate was Ian Gray (the MSP) then this would be a Labour hold. The SNP should improve on 1997 but not as well as 1999 but could take enough Labour votes to make a difference. BTW the SNP candidate is no longer Stuart Crawford. It is now Stwart Gibb who fought the seat in 1997 & 1999. Disclaimer - I was the SNP election agent at the 1999 elections but have been out of the country since then so this is based on perceptions that are two years old.
15/05/01 JL Email:
I have little doubt that Malcolm Rifkind will regain this seat. The level of Conservative activity over the last two years has had an intensity that I have never seen in any other constituency. Rifkind is very well respected, and while the sitting MP has obtained minor office her political profile has been non existent.
If the Conservatives do not regain this seat with an excellent candidate and enormous effort their prospects for ever winning a directly elected seat in Westminster from Scotland will be nil, and the UK prospects extremely poor.
A further comment. The sitting MP's position is not "Advocate General" - such a position does not exist in Scotland. She is Lord Advocate, a position with a very limited impact on the political scene.
22/05/01 JL Email:
I revise my opinion here into "too close to call". Nationally the Tories are doing worse than one could have expected even a few days ago, and there are reports of a strong revival of Labour actvity in the constituency.
23/05/01 G Email:
Indeed, the Labour candidate is Advocate General and is not the Lord Advocate.
24/05/01 JR Email:
The latest Scottish poll for the Westminster election (published yesterday) is as follows: Labour 50% (up 4% since General Election '97) SNP 25% (up 3% since '97) Tory 12% (down 5% since '97) LibDem 9% (down 4%) In other words a swing from Tory to Labour of 4.5% If this is replicated in Edinburgh Pentlands Lynda Clark would win with a 9500 majority. And remember, there was no sign of a personal vote for Malcolm Rifkind in '97, there's even less likely to be one now that he's no longer the incumbent.
30/05/01 Colin Forth Email:
Along with W. Aberdeenshire, the best Tory hope in Scotland. Labour are worried here and the MP is not liked. Too close to call.
03/06/01 JL Email:
I stand corrected on the position of Advocate General. I still think this will be ultra close. The LDs do not seem to be running a strong campaign, and their vote will be squeezed, but it is small. A huge amount will depend on differential turnout, as it always has in this constituency. Can Lynda Clark and Labour get their vote out in Wester Hailes?
06/06/01 JL Email:
I would be very interested to see the Tory election accounts, to know how they've kept within the limits! Whatever the polls say, I still reckon Rifkind will win, particularly if the weather is bad as forecast.

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Last Updated 7 June 2001
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