Election Prediction Project
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British General Election
Eastwood

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
James Murphy
 Conservative Party:
Raymond S. Robertson
 Liberal Democratic Party:
Allan Steele junr.
 Scottish Nationalist Party:
Stewart Maxwell

Incumbent:
 Jim Murphy

97 Result:
 Jim Murphy
20,76639.8%
 Allan Stewart
17,53033.6%
 Christopher Mason
6,11011.7%
 Douglas Yates
682613.07%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
52,23578.32%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
12,70624.1%
24,54446.6%
8,65116.4%
6,58912.5%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
52,63679.9%

Demographic Profile:

Employment:
Unemployed8.2%

Household SEG:
I - Professional7.8%
II - Managerial/Technical39.6%
III - Skilled (non-manual)27.5%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)13.4%
IV - Partly Skilled8.6%
V - Unskilled2.3%

Misc:
Own Residence79.5%
Rent Residence20.5%
Submissions
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09/05/01 JR Email:
Once considered the safest Tory seat in Scotland, and the only one to produce a five figure majority in 1992 and 1997. The Tories suffered not just from the national swing but also from candidate trouble last time. Incumbent Allan Stewart - who had hit the headlines and lost his job as junior Transport minister for 'presenting a pickaxe' at some environmental protesters in 1995 - pulled out at the last minute, to be replaced by scottish Solicitor-General Paul Cullen. 29 year old former National Union of Students president Jim Murphy was the surprise winner for Labour. It might be suspected that Eastwood would be a prime candidate for a return to the Tory fold this time. Not so. Labour won the seat in the 1999 Scottish Parliament elections. There is a danger that Eastwood could go Tory by default however. I don't expect a substantial increase in the Tory vote here or anywhere else in Scotland but a lot will depend on how the anti-Tory vote lines up. If Labour supporters vote LibDem or SNP the Tories could slip through the middle. A LibDem surge is less likely - the evidence of parliamentary byelections is that their presence in Government at Holyrood hasn't gone down well - but the SNP share could rise sharply. On balance I think Labour will win here but that is by no means assured.
 03/06/01 LB Email:
A constituency opinion poll for the Scotland on Sunday newspaper yesterday found evidence of a considerable swing to Labour in the Eastwood constituency, with Jim Murphy increasing his share to 47%.
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Last Updated 04 June 2001
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