Election Prediction Project
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British General Election
Southport

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Paul Brant
Conservative Party:
Laurence Jones
Liberal Democratic Party:
John Pugh
UK Independence Party:
Gerard Kelley

Incumbent:
Ronnie Fearn

97 Result:
Sarah Norman
6,12512.1%
Matthew Banks
18,18635.9%
Ronnie Fearn
24,34648.1%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
50,59672.08%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
5,63710.2%
26,08147.0%
23,01841.5%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
55,44076.3%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1617.4%
16-2411.0%
25-3918.8%
40-6526.6%
65 <26.2%

Ethnic Origin:
White98.8%
Black0.3%
Indian/Pakistani0.3%
Other non-white0.7%

Employment:
Full Time58.1%
Part Time18.2%
Self Employed14.1%
Government Schemes1.6%
Unemployed8.0%

Household SEG:
I - Professional5.8%
II - Managerial/Technical37.4%
III - Skilled (non-manual)16.4%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)22.7%
IV - Partly Skilled12.0%
V - Unskilled3.1%

Misc:
Own Residence80.4%
Rent Residence18.7%
Own Car(s)68.0%
Submissions
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22/04/01 NG Email:
The Lib Dems do not have a good record of handing on their seats once incumbent MPs retire but John Pugh will be hoping that he will be able to reverse this trend this time round by holding Southport. Things look quite positive : in addition to a 6,000 majority, Pugh can look with satisfaction at a reasonably good set of local election results. It would take a big Tory comeback to win this one this time round.
19/04/01 JR Email: robertsat13@cwcom.net
I predict a Tory gain from LibDem. Ronnie Fearn has a huge personal vote here - in most areas LibDems do much better at local council elections than General Elections because of their locally focussed 'pavement politics', but here they do about the same or even slightly worse. Fearn fought his first election in this Tory seaside town in 1970, building up his vote each time until he won in 1987. He is retiring this time. His replacement as candidate is John Pugh, leader of Sefton Borough Council (Bootle, Crosby, Southport) a local authority most people round here would like to see abolished. Also Labour's Paul Brant, is putting in a good effort. He'll finish third, but with a vigorous campaign could siphon enough LD votes to give the seat to the Tories.
15/05/01 JB Email:
While sitting Lib Dem MP Ronnie Fearn will be a tough act to follow, the signs look good for new Lib Dem candidate John Pugh, defending a solid 6,000 vote majority. Pugh is well-known in the constituency, having been a councillor in Birkdale ward, near the centre of the Southport constituency, for many years and more recently having risen to lead the Lib Dems on the council.
Southport is rather a parochial seat and The Tories have again made the mistake of selecting a non-local candidate. Had they selected a well-known Southport name, they might have been in with a chance, but Laurence Jones, their Funeral Director from the Wirral is likely to find that the first cremation he oversees after June 7th is his political ambitions going up in smoke.!
Labour can't win in Southport - as well as always coming a poor third in Parliamentary Elections here, they have never won a Council seat in Southport since Sefton Council was created in 1973. It is thus surprising that they managed as much as 12% last time around. Dissapointment with the Government's performance will probably make it easier for some of those Labour voters to tactically vote for Pugh this time.
30/05/01 JR Email:
SDP founder and prominent LibDem peer Shirley Williams has been spending quite a lot of time campaigning for the LDs on Merseyside, and she was quoted in the Liverpool Daily Post as saying about Southport "it's looking bad, we could lose it". Apparently they are really shaken up by the campaign Labour's Paul Brant is running (which includes such stunts as a photo-op for the local paper wearing lifejackets to show how tory spending cutbacks would result in the town's sea defences being left to rot!). Brant won't win, and will finish third, but he will pick a lot of the 'centre left' LibDem votes. Meanwhile the Tory candidate will pick up votes from natural Tories who liked Ronnie Fearn but have never heard of Pugh, or who hate Sefton council. This will be one of very very few Tory gains on the night; they will gain it almost by default.

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Last Updated 30 May 2001
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