Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Penrith and The Border

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Michael Boaden
Conservative Party:
Rt. Hon. David J. Maclean
Liberal Democratic Party:
K. Geyve Walker

Incumbent:
Rt Hon David MacLean

97 Result:
Margaret Meling
10,57621.6%
David Maclean
23,30047.6%
Geyve Walker
13,06726.7%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
48,96173.63%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
5,64411.0%
30,03058.7%
14,84829.0%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
51,15579.5%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1618.6%
16-2411.8%
25-3920.0%
40-6529.3%
65 <20.2%

Ethnic Origin:
White99.7%
Black0.1%
Indian/Pakistani0.1%
Other non-white0.2%

Employment:
Full Time55.5%
Part Time16.3%
Self Employed22.5%
Government Schemes1.2%
Unemployed4.5%

Household SEG:
I - Professional6.0%
II - Managerial/Technical36.5%
III - Skilled (non-manual)10.6%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)28.8%
IV - Partly Skilled13.0%
V - Unskilled3.6%

Misc:
Own Residence71.9%
Rent Residence22.9%
Own Car(s)80.6%
Submissions
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29/04/01 JR Email:
David McLean is not much of a constituency MP - while most of his colleagues dash back to their constituencies on Fridays to listen to local grievances and get their photo in the local paper, he spends his Fridays shooting down private members' bills. Nevertheless this is Tory country. The only time the Tories ever came close to losing was July 1983, when Home Secretary William Whitelaw stood down after being kicked upstairs with a seat in the House of Lords. On that occasion voters protested against an unnecessary byelection by giving Maclean a majority of just 500. About 40% of all the foot and mouth cases in Britain are in this seat. A friend of mine was in the constituency a week or two back and saw painted placards on farms saying "Drop Dead Tony Blair" etc. Maclean will probably win by an increased margin.
22/05/01 Alastair Matlock Email:
Penrith & the Border is home to some of the most beautiful scenery in England, and this is the former seat of Willie Whitelaw, Mrs Thatcher's Deputy Prime Minister. Tory stronghold.

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Last Updated 23 May 2001
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