Election Prediction Project
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British General Election
Liverpool, Wavertree

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Jane E. Kennedy
Conservative Party:
Geoffrey Allen
Liberal Democratic Party:
Christopher Newby
Socialist Alliance:
Mark O'Brien

Incumbent:
Jane Kennedy

97 Result:
Jane Kennedy
29,59264.4%
Christopher Malthouse
4,94410.8%
Richard Kemp
9,89121.5%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
45,91862.85%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
21,23741.3%
6,42212.5%
17,85734.7%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
51,41570.3%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1620.5%
16-2413.0%
25-3922.6%
40-6525.1%
65 <18.8%

Ethnic Origin:
White96.3%
Black1.3%
Indian/Pakistani0.7%
Other non-white1.7%

Employment:
Full Time58.4%
Part Time15.1%
Self Employed7.4%
Government Schemes2.4%
Unemployed16.7%

Household SEG:
I - Professional5.4%
II - Managerial/Technical24.5%
III - Skilled (non-manual)15.6%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)24.6%
IV - Partly Skilled16.4%
V - Unskilled4.9%

Misc:
Own Residence63.6%
Rent Residence35.4%
Own Car(s)49.4%
Submissions
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12/04/01 NG Email:
Liverpool Wavertree will be an interesting seat to watch on election night. In 1992, the Liberal Democrats were (in the land of redistributed votes anyway) only a couple of points behind Labour here. Despite their dramatic fall at the last election, they still remain well ahead of the Tories and, having won control of Liverpool in 1998, are in a strong position to do well here. There's not much likelihood that the Lib Dems will win straight off ... although on a lowturn, almost anything is possible. So, probably Labour but one to watch all the same!
18/04/01 JR Email:
With the exception of the 'Alton Factor' (David Alton, the LD MP for Lpool Mossley Hill 1979-97) the LibDem vote in Liverpool has always been a local elections only phenomenon. In 1979 local and general elections ran simultaneously. They polled 40,000 votes for Parliament and 85,000 for the Town Hall. I have stood as a Labour candidate here for the Council and was told time and time again by people that they had nothing against the Labour Government, but weren't ready to trust the local Labour Group (highest council tax in the land etc). Also most of their councillors are tin-pot town hall hacks with a wide variety of views from far-left to far-right and no understanding of (or interest in) national politics. Most will only campaign when their name's on the ballot paper and there has been very little evidence of any LD campaign. Jane Kennedy is well known and well thought of locally. The majority will be well down (I predict a turnout of 50%) but the share of the vote shouldn't change too much. Chris Newby is a turncoat ex-Labour councillor who won a much lower majority in his ward than the other 2 LD councillors there.
24/04/01 TD Email:
The most recent available figures indicate that the unemployment rate in Liverpool, Wavertree is 6.2% (3,347 claimants). This represents a fall from 9.4% in May 1997.
19/04/01 JR Email: robertsat13@cwcom.net
The site of the biggest LibDem success in local elections - they took 70% in the wards that make up the constituency last year. However, we shouldn't read too much into this - they got 56% in the 96 locals, but their general election candidate Richard Kemp got just 21% in May 1997. The LibDems have been a fixture in Liverpool City Council since the early seventies but only ever won one of the parliamentary seats (the now abolished Mossley Hill), with the hugely popular David Alton. Chris Newby is a controversial candidate for the LDs having been a senior Labour Councillor who crossed the floor - that won't go down well.
24/05/01 JR Email:
An opinion poll for the Wavertree constituency in today's Liverpool Echo gives Labour 69%, the LibDems 21% and the Tories 8%. It really is all over bar the shouting in Liverpool Wavertree. And for the record the Echo poll in the last election actually UNDERestimated Jane Kennedy's lead - it predicted a 33-point lead but she won by 42% (64%-22%)! The LibDem campaign in Liverpool is clearly going nowhere. On Monday they held a rally in a city centre hotel, with Shirley Williams (one of the founders of the SDP, an ex-Labour cabinet minister and ex-MP for nearby Crosby) as the keynote speaker. There were about ten people present - the BBC political reporter stood at the back of the hall gesturing at all the empty seats! Also they turned up in next door Garston with a big yellow battle bus, stood outside the local supermarket for two hours shouting through a megaphone like a bunch of Trots, and were completely ignored by everyone!
29/05/01 A.S. Email:adma@interlog.com
Tin-pot is right, or even an understatement; in fact, Liverpool was making headlines over the 70s and 80s for a strain of Loony Left Labourism so virulent, it even made "Red Ken" look like a piker--at the peak of its powers, it was ideologically fiddling while Liverpool was almost literally burning. Which helps explain why the city lost a seat in the latest redistribution--and Wavertree effectively replaces the seats that represented Liverpool's polarities: David Alton's Mossley Hill, and Broadgreen, long represented by Westminster's most frightful Labour loon, Terry Fields. Having finally been expelled from the party for his "Militant Tendency" affiliations, Fields stood as a "Socialist Labour" independent in 1992--only to be pulverized by Wavertree's current member Jane Kennedy. Things are much, *much* more placid these days with Liverpool's all-Labour parliamentary delegation...

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Last Updated 29 May 2001
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