Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Cheadle

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Howard Dawber
Conservative Party:
Stephen R. Day
Liberal Democratic Party:
Patsy Calton
UK Independence Party:
Vincent Cavanagh

Incumbent:
Stephen Day

97 Result:
Paul Diggett
8,25315.7%
Stephen Day
22,94443.7%
Patsy Calton
19,75537.7%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
52,46377.58%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
7,08012.4%
32,80457.7%
16,82829.6%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
56,89582.7%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1619.6%
16-2412.0%
25-3919.4%
40-6530.9%
65 <18.0%

Ethnic Origin:
White96.9%
Black0.3%
Indian/Pakistani1.7%
Other non-white1.0%

Employment:
Full Time64.7%
Part Time17.3%
Self Employed12.6%
Government Schemes0.7%
Unemployed4.8%

Household SEG:
I - Professional13.6%
II - Managerial/Technical44.0%
III - Skilled (non-manual)16.7%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)16.0%
IV - Partly Skilled7.3%
V - Unskilled1.5%

Misc:
Own Residence87.8%
Rent Residence11.4%
Own Car(s)83.4%
Submissions
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22/04/01 NG Email:
The Lib Dems got pretty close to winning once true-blue Tory in 1997 and they will be working flat-out to persuade enough Labour voters to switch this time to give the Tories a run for their money. It isn't going to be easy for either side but the Lib Dems' local strength in the North West should give them at least a fighting chance of bringing this one to the wire.
30/05/01 Howard Dawber Email:
I'm the Labour Candidate for Cheadle - we are getting a very positive response and I simply do not believe our vote will collapse. If anything we expect to INCREASE our share - so the likelihood of a Lib Dem win is low unless they can get some votes off the Tories.
31/05/01 Gatley Resident Email:
I agree that the Liberal Democrats face an uphill battle to retain votes here in Gatley (Cheadle). There have been a number of local issues which the Lib Dems have given no support (mobile phone masts, cinema closure). People feel let down and are turning to the Labour Candidate Haward Dawber
05/06/01 A.S. Email:adma@interlog.com
Despite token advances last time out, forget Labour. Electors made their advance tactical decision in 1997, and that is to put the uncompromising onus on Lib Dem a la Hazel Grove/Sheffield Hallam. Right now, as a target, it's a Mancunian Orpington. Period.
06/06/01 JL Email:
I can understand the Labour candidate whistling to keep his spirits up, but I'll bet him 100 for charity that his share of the vote falls, and significantly. It's a pity this proposal is rather idle, as it's somewhat late for him to respond. But to suggest that he might win - I fear he is in fantasy land!

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Last Updated 7 June 2001
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