Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Blackpool South

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Gordon Marsden
Conservative Party:
David Morris
Liberal Democratic Party:
Doreen Holt

Incumbent:
Gordon Marsden

97 Result:
Gordon Marsden
29,28257.0%
Richard Booth
17,66634.4%
Doreen Halt
4,3928.6%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
51,34067.80%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
25,56343.4%
25,95744.1%
7,14812.1%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
58,90178.5%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1617.7%
16-2411.9%
25-3920.1%
40-6527.8%
65 <22.5%

Ethnic Origin:
White99.2%
Black0.2%
Indian/Pakistani0.3%
Other non-white0.4%

Employment:
Full Time55.4%
Part Time15.0%
Self Employed16.5%
Government Schemes1.4%
Unemployed11.7%

Household SEG:
I - Professional3.1%
II - Managerial/Technical24.5%
III - Skilled (non-manual)16.1%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)30.5%
IV - Partly Skilled16.1%
V - Unskilled6.5%

Misc:
Own Residence74.3%
Rent Residence24.8%
Own Car(s)56.2%
Submissions
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14/05/01 JR Email:
This had once been a Tory stronghold but had started moving to Labour some time before the 1997 landslide. There was a 5% pro labour swing in Mrs Thatcher's landslide year of 1987, cutting the majority from 10000 to 6600, and in 1992 new Tory candidate Nick Hawkins won by just 1700. Hawkins clearly saw the writing on the wall and found himself a safe seat at Surrey Heath in time for the 97 election. In May 2000 Labour held on to Blackpool Council (while losing other seaside towns like Great Yarmouth). Gordon Marsden could win here even if Labour lose nationally.

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Last Updated 14 May 2001
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