Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Wyre Forest

Current Prediction:
Independent
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
David A. Lock
Conservative Party:
G. Mark Simpson
Liberal Democratic Party:
UK Independence Party:
Arthur Millington
Independent:
Dr. Richard Taylor

Incumbent:
David Lock

97 Result:
David Lock
26,84348.8%
Anthony Coombs
19,89736.1%
David Crop
4,3778.0%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
55,05575.35%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
18,41431.2%
27,99947.5%
12,55121.3%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
58,96472.1%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1619.9%
16-2412.9%
25-3920.2%
40-6529.2%
65 <17.8%

Ethnic Origin:
White99.1%
Black0.2%
Indian/Pakistani0.4%
Other non-white0.3%

Employment:
Full Time63.4%
Part Time16.1%
Self Employed10.9%
Government Schemes1.2%
Unemployed8.5%

Household SEG:
I - Professional5.5%
II - Managerial/Technical32.5%
III - Skilled (non-manual)10.7%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)31.6%
IV - Partly Skilled13.1%
V - Unskilled4.4%

Misc:
Own Residence74.7%
Rent Residence24.1%
Own Car(s)75.5%
Submissions
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IND 25/04/01 JR Email:
A surprise gain from the Tories last time. Wyre Forest could produce a truly unique result. The three sets of Council elections since 1997 have been won by a local campaign group fighting to save Kidderminster Hospital, and they run the borough jointly with a breakaway group of Liberals. They have given local MP and junior minister David Lock a very hard time and are reported to be planning to stand against him in the general election. The LibDems have hinted they may stand down in favour of a such a 'Health Campaign' candidate. The Tories have failed to make capitalise Labour's local difficulty, having only one or two seats on the Council. I seriously think a Save-Our-Hospital independent could win this seat.
IND
12/05/01 NS Email:Starling@nejs.fsworld.co.uk
I agree that there is a good chance of an "Independent" gain here. Serves the Labour Party right ! Their MP has slavishly followed the party line on the issue of the local hospital, and it may cost him dear !!
IND
15/05/01 Cllr Mike Oborski Email:mike@oboofcom.demon.co.uk
Actually Wyre Forest District Council is run by a 4 party alliance (18 Health Concern, 5 Con, 4 Lib-Dem, 3 Lib)with an opposition of 11 Labour. There is another Councillor floating between parties at present! Health Concern's Richard Taylor is fighting a vey strong campaign and could take out David Lock.
17/05/01 Paul R Davis Email:pdavis1@vtown.com.au
The above is a delightful scenario, and in a by-election, Dr Bradford might win. However, all the evidence is that in General Elections, the majority of voters swallow hard and remember that the government of the country is at stake and put that before even strongly-felt local issues. However, David Lock has been much discredited by the excellent hospital/health campaign, and I am therefore offering a third possible outcome. This seat (formerly Kidderminster) had been Conservative from 1950 and Dr Bradford's vote will damage David Lock much more than the new Conservative candidate. I think this will enable the Conservatives to obtain the swing they need to win.
IND
21/05/01 ib Email:
It's going to be a very close race. The major parties flatter themselves that they think voters will only choose between them, however, the strength of feeling in Wyre Forest about this has flattened them at the 1999 and 2000 local elections. I think that the Health Concern Independent will take the seat by a narrow margin.
IND
03/06/01 Josh Email:hoshie@hotpop.com
Looking at the ferver that Dr Taylor has been raising over the local hospital, he could win. But if he don't, you can't say he tried.
IND 05/06/01 Nicholas Whyte Email:explorers@whyte.com
Taylor is getting a real reaction from people who feel sidelined by the government, and there is no reason to see that the Conservatives are making any gains from this. The general perception that this election will be won well by Labour at a national level means that the voters of Kidderminster will not feel particularly obliged to vote as if choosing a government; in a sense, it's a by-election within a general election. Taylor will win.

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Last Updated 7 June 2001
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