Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Lincoln

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Gillian J. Merron
Conservative Party:
Christine Talbot
Liberal Democratic Party:
Lisa M. Gabriel

Incumbent:
Ms Gillian Merron

97 Result:
Gillian Merron
25,56354.9%
Anthony Brown
14,43331.0%
Lisa Gabriel
5,04810.8%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
46,54871.08%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
23,86946.0%
22,90544.2%
4,5618.8%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
51,83579.6%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1620.5%
16-2413.3%
25-3922.5%
40-6524.1%
65 <19.7%

Ethnic Origin:
White98.8%
Black0.3%
Indian/Pakistani0.4%
Other non-white0.5%

Employment:
Full Time60.2%
Part Time16.0%
Self Employed9.4%
Government Schemes1.8%
Unemployed12.5%

Household SEG:
I - Professional5.4%
II - Managerial/Technical23.5%
III - Skilled (non-manual)12.8%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)29.0%
IV - Partly Skilled16.4%
V - Unskilled5.9%

Misc:
Own Residence62.8%
Rent Residence36.0%
Own Car(s)62.1%
Submissions
Submit Information here

03/06/01 JR Email:
Lincoln has an interesting electoral history. It had been a safe Labour seat from the Second World War onwards, until 1973, when its Labour MP, Dick Taverne, resigned from the party in protest against its drift to the left and its opposition to membership of the European Community. Along with his party membership, Taverne resigned his seat in Parliament. In the ensuing byelection he stood under the banner of 'Democratic Labour' and was re-elected handsomely, aided by the withdrawal of the Liberal candidate. In the February 1974 general election Taverne was again reelected but in the second general election of that year, in October, he lost to Margaret Beckett (currently House Leader in the Blair Government and MP for Derby South). Then in 1979 there was a further upheaval, and Lincoln elected its first post-war Tory MP. The Tory winner Kenneth Carlisle was aided by the presence of a candidate representing the remains of Taverne's 'Democratic Labour Association'. Carlisle held on until his retirement in 1997, and Lincoln came to be seen as a bellwether Lab-Con marginal (although interestingly throughout Carlisle's tenure the city council was under landslide Labour control). It's the sort of seat the Tories ought to be able to take back if they're going for Government but as things look at the moment Gillian Merron seems assured of a second term in the Commons.
03/06/01 A.S. Email:adma@interlog.com
Gradual whittling to the urban core made Lincoln into a notional Labour seat going into 1997...and it more lived up to its billing, albeit as Lincolnshire's only speck of red. Will there be more to join it this time?

Submit Information here
Back to Midlands Index
Back to British General Election Prediction Index
Last Updated 4 June 2001
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© 1999-2001 Milton Chan

Email Webmaster