Election Prediction Project
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British General Election
Kettering

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Philip A. Sawford
Conservative Party:
Philip T. Hollobone
Liberal Democratic Party:
Roger J. Aron
UK Independence Party:
Barry J. Mahoney

Incumbent:
Phil Sawford

97 Result:
Philip Saford
24,65043.3%
Roger Freeman
24,46142.9%
Roger Aron
6,09810.7%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
56,95775.79%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
18,69731.9%
30,88452.7%
9,01215.4%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
58,59380.9%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1620.4%
16-2412.8%
25-3921.0%
40-6527.4%
65 <18.5%

Ethnic Origin:
White97.8%
Black0.4%
Indian/Pakistani1.1%
Other non-white0.7%

Employment:
Full Time63.9%
Part Time16.1%
Self Employed12.7%
Government Schemes0.9%
Unemployed6.5%

Household SEG:
I - Professional5.6%
II - Managerial/Technical33.1%
III - Skilled (non-manual)12.8%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)30.8%
IV - Partly Skilled12.5%
V - Unskilled4.0%

Misc:
Own Residence76.2%
Rent Residence22.0%
Own Car(s)74.6%
Submissions
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18/04/01 NG Email:
A recent article in the Guardian looked at the electoral prospects of a number of sample seats up and down the country including Kettering. The Labour incumbent is extremely vulnerable to a small Tory revival but private polling appears to suggest that currently Labour is just ahead of the Tories in terms of intentions to vote with all three parties roughly where they were in 1997. Although Kettering should be a relatively easy win for the Tories,it is beginning to look as though it will be a lot tougher than they might like to think.
22/05/01 Alastair Matlock Email:
Kettering is a top Conservative target and the Tories need only a small swing to regain this seat. Look for them to regain Kettering in 7 June.
27/05/01 PSR Email:
I agree with NG, this seat could be a lot closer than it first appears. Obviously it looks like an easy Tory gain but every nespaper report has found the seat to be neck and neck between the two. Secondly, there is still some room for tactical voting by the Lib Dems and the Tories are concentrating all of their energies on marginals with bigger majorities to overturn, apparently the top 30 "simplest" targets to regain are being left largely to the local parties. Could be interesting.
03/06/01 A.S. Email:adma@interlog.com
There's a kind of poetic justice to Kettering--a sort of English "everyville" epitome a la Muncie Indiana--being the locus of everybody's fave Lab-C marginal. If Phil Sawford loses, maybe he should write a book about his term in office...

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Last Updated 7 June 2001
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