Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Coventry North West

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Geoffrey Robinson
Conservative Party:
Andrew Fairburn
Liberal Democratic Party:
Geoffrey B. Sewards
Independent:
Christine M. Oddy

Incumbent:
Geoffrey Robinson

97 Result:
Geoffrey Robinson
30,90156.9%
Paul Bartlett
14,30026.3%
Napier Penlington
5,69010.5%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
54,32271.07%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
31,08351.2%
22,42537.0%
7,15211.8%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
60,66076.6%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1619.8%
16-2413.0%
25-3921.9%
40-6525.5%
65 <19.8%

Ethnic Origin:
White91.9%
Black1.4%
Indian/Pakistani5.9%
Other non-white0.8%

Employment:
Full Time66.0%
Part Time14.8%
Self Employed7.6%
Government Schemes1.4%
Unemployed10.3%

Household SEG:
I - Professional6.4%
II - Managerial/Technical25.3%
III - Skilled (non-manual)13.0%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)30.8%
IV - Partly Skilled18.7%
V - Unskilled3.0%

Misc:
Own Residence76.5%
Rent Residence22.8%
Own Car(s)64.7%
Submissions
Submit Information here

21/05/01 LB Email:
Coventry NW has been a surprisingly faithful Labour seat for many years. The party held it in a 1976 by-election and in 1983 and 1987 when many similar seats fell to the Conservatives. It is a mainly white area of skilled working class voters, many of whom are quite affluent, and a centre for the motor industry. Seats like Hornchurch, and Birmingham Northfield, went Tory but Coventry NW didn't. Part of the reason was the strong municipal Labour tradition, and also the personality of MP Geoffrey Robinson, who was unusual in the 1970s and 1980s in being a successful businessman turned Labour MP and therefore easy for voters believing in enterprise and ambition to support - New Labour before New Labour was invented. In this election these factors will hinder rather than help Labour. Coventry voters gave the Labour council some very bad results in May 2000 and the Conservatives were slightly ahead across the seat. Geoffrey Robinson has run into trouble with the parliamentary regulators over his business affairs and had to resign as a minister in 1998. Voters in 1997 punished candidates thought to be associated with 'sleaze' - most notably Neil Hamilton in Tatton - and it is possible that anger might focus on Robinson. However, Robinson is a man of considerable charm and has dug himself in well, and with Labour doing well in the national polls I back Robinson to hold the seat - despite what might be a fairly large swing against him.

Submit Information here
Back to Midlands Index
Back to British General Election Prediction Index
Last Updated 21 May 2001
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© 1999-2001 Milton Chan

Email Webmaster