Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Birmingham, Yardley

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Rt. Hon. Estelle Morris
Conservative Party:
Barrie Roberts
Liberal Democratic Party:
John A.M. Hemming
UK Independence Party:
Alan J. Ware

Incumbent:
Rt Hon Estelle Morris

97 Result:
Estelle Morris
17,77847.0%
Anne Jobson
6,73617.8%
John Hemming
12,46333.0%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
37,78771.22%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
14,88434.9%
14,72234.5%
12,89930.2%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
42,69776.8%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1619.6%
16-2412.0%
25-3921.9%
40-6524.5%
65 <22.0%

Ethnic Origin:
White92.5%
Black2.8%
Indian/Pakistani3.7%
Other non-white1.0%

Employment:
Full Time65.9%
Part Time13.9%
Self Employed7.3%
Government Schemes1.5%
Unemployed11.4%

Household SEG:
I - Professional2.5%
II - Managerial/Technical19.3%
III - Skilled (non-manual)14.3%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)35.2%
IV - Partly Skilled19.7%
V - Unskilled5.1%

Misc:
Own Residence66.1%
Rent Residence32.9%
Own Car(s)57.0%
Submissions
Submit Information here

18/04/01 NG Email:
In 1992, the Tories narrowly lost Brimingham Yardley (in theory, a reasonably Tory blue seat) to Labour in what turned out to be a fairly three-way contest. On election night 1997, the Tories fell even further behind, pushed into third place behind the Lib Dems. Since 1997, there has, moreover, not been much sign of a Tory revival here. On what was generally a poor night for them, the Lib Dems actually did very well here in the European elections and it seems almost certain that this will be a two-horse race between Labour and the Lib Dems. Labour is probably just far enough ahead at the moment but it is likely to be a very close election.
21/05/01 ib Email:
Yardley has never been a true-blue seat, until 1992, it was a classic bell-weather seat swinging between Labour and Tory depending on who won the election. However, it has been totally dominated by the LibDems in local terms and now that the Tories have faded to third, Tory tactical voting and discontent with the current MP will give the LibDems a chance. Well worth watching.
05/06/01 Email:dadge@hotmail.com
If at first you don't succeed... The Lib Dems have over the years managed to build bridgeheads in most of the big cities but Birmingham stubbornly refuses to crack. John Hemming deserves to win, but I fear it's not going to be so easy. Local results aren't always mirrored in parliamentary results and here's a classic case. Still, he's got all the Lib Dems in the Midlands in the constituency helping so it's now or never. If he does it, I'll take my hat off to him.

Submit Information here
Back to Midlands Index
Back to British General Election Prediction Index
Last Updated 7 June 2001
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© 1999-2001 Milton Chan

Email Webmaster