Election Prediction Project
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British General Election
Amber Valley

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
C. Judith Mallaber
Conservative Party:
Gillian M. Shaw
Liberal Democratic Party:
Kate Smith

Incumbent:
Judy Mallaber

97 Result:
Judy Mallaber
29,94354.7%
Phillip Oppenheim
18,33033.5%
Roger Shelley
4,2197.7%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
54,77576.07%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
27,07744.4%
28,36046.5%
5,5829.1%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
61,01983.7%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1618.8%
16-2412.3%
25-3921.2%
40-6528.2%
65 <19.3%

Ethnic Origin:
White99.3%
Black0.2%
Indian/Pakistani0.3%
Other non-white0.2%

Employment:
Full Time65.4%
Part Time15.8%
Self Employed10.4%
Government Schemes0.9%
Unemployed7.6%

Household SEG:
I - Professional5.0%
II - Managerial/Technical26.2%
III - Skilled (non-manual)10.4%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)37.9%
IV - Partly Skilled13.4%
V - Unskilled5.3%

Misc:
Own Residence75.8%
Rent Residence23.1%
Own Car(s)70.1%
Submissions
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27/05/01 A.S. Email:adma@interlog.com
Betwixt Derby & Notts, an ordinarily Labourish constituency with an old-industrial-cum-mining lilt that typified, though continued Conservative marginality, the 80s-90s right-populist wooing of the lower-middle-class working stiff, cf. the USA's "Reagan Democrats". ("Essex Man", my foot; how about "Heanor Man"?) But Blair blowed that up real good in '97, and Amber'll be Red once again in 2001...
29/05/01 KF Email:
Amber Valley will be a very interesting contest this year. This seat is a classic marginal. Most of the Labour vote comes from the market towns of Alfreton, Heanor and Ripley. Meanwhile, the Tories are very strong in the south and west of the seat, which consists of well-to-do Derby suburbs such as Little Eaton, and picturesque villages on the edge of the Peak District such as Crich, where TV's 'Peak Practice' is filmed. The Tories won control of the district council in 2000 on a huge swing, and can be expected to run Labour a lot closer this time than in 1997. The Labour MP is a lightweight from an all-woman shortlist, whilst the Tory is a lady chosen on merit with strong local roots. Also the Labour voters here are massively 'old Labour', steeped in the tradition of the mining and textile industries, and can be expected to stay at home in their thousands. I think that Judy Mallaber will squeak back in with a majority of about 2000 but the Tories will be well placed to regain this seat next time.

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Last Updated 29 May 2001
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