Election Prediction Project
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British General Election
Aldridge - Brownhills

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Ian D. Geary
Conservative Party:
Richard C.S. Shepherd
Liberal Democratic Party:
James E. Whorwood
Socialist Alliance:
John Rothery

Incumbent:
Richard Shepherd

97 Result:
Janos Toth
19,33041.7%
Richard Sheperd
21,85647.1%
Celia Downie
5,18411.2%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
46,37074.26%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
17,40733.3%
28,43154.3%
6,50312.4%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
52,34181.9%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1618.2%
16-2413.0%
25-3919.5%
40-6531.4%
65 <18.0%

Ethnic Origin:
White98.0%
Black0.5%
Indian/Pakistani1.1%
Other non-white0.4%

Employment:
Full Time64.5%
Part Time15.9%
Self Employed10.2%
Government Schemes1.3%
Unemployed8.0%

Household SEG:
I - Professional4.9%
II - Managerial/Technical30.5%
III - Skilled (non-manual)12.1%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)33.8%
IV - Partly Skilled13.0%
V - Unskilled3.9%

Misc:
Own Residence73.0%
Rent Residence26.1%
Own Car(s)73.9%
Submissions
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10/05/01 Sean Fear Email:fear_sean@hotmail.com
Richard Shepherd only won this seat from Labour in 1979. An interesting example of a seat that was once marginal but is now safely Conservative. Given that the swing to Labour was below average last time, Richard Shepherd should have no difficulty increasing his majority.
21/05/01 ib/TD> Email:
This seat will be held by the Conservatives unless there is an utter disaster. The local election results have been very good for the Conservatives and the seat as redrawn in 1983 is far more favorable for them than the different marginal seat of the same name. The high quality and independence of the sitting MP will help as well.

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Last Updated 21 MAy 2001
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