Election Prediction Project
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British General Election
Old Bexley and Sidcup

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
James C. Dickson
Conservative Party:
David L. Conway
Liberal Democratic Party:
Belinda J. Ford
UK Independence Party:
Janice Cronin

Incumbent:
Rt Hon Sir Edward Heath KG, MBE

97 Result:
Richard Jostham
18,03935.1%
Edward Heath
21,60842.0%
Iain King
8,28416.1%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
51,39175.53%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
11,76821.1%
31,34056.3%
11,64220.9%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
55,68680.8%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1619.0%
16-2411.9%
25-3921.8%
40-6528.5%
65 <18.8%

Ethnic Origin:
White96.0%
Black0.7%
Indian/Pakistani1.8%
Other non-white1.5%

Employment:
Full Time66.2%
Part Time14.8%
Self Employed11.8%
Government Schemes0.7%
Unemployed6.5%

Household SEG:
I - Professional6.1%
II - Managerial/Technical34.7%
III - Skilled (non-manual)21.8%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)24.9%
IV - Partly Skilled7.7%
V - Unskilled3.8%

Misc:
Own Residence85.1%
Rent Residence14.0%
Own Car(s)76.3%
Submissions
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20/04/01 H. Marshall Email:hamish_marshall@hotmail.com
This seat should remain Tory. Ted Heath has represented it for 51 years, and before that it withstood Clem Atlee's Labour tide in 1945. Heath has been the "Father" of the House of Commons since 1992, and his legacy should be enough to keep this seat Tory.
01/05/01 JB Email:
Ted Heath is retiring and Labour are going for it. Rumour of possible vote trading on www.tacticalvoter.net by Old Bexley Lib Dem voters with Orpington Labour voters should be worrying the Tories.
14/05/01 Fauntleroy Email:
This is Labour's best chance of winning the seat. Ted Heath's personal vote probably kept him in last time, somewhat against the odds.
14/05/01 CP Email:
Ted Heath's retirement throws it wide open. Not all the affluent suburbia that most people think. Labour should take it.
14/05/01 Sean Fear Email:fear_sean@hotmail.com
Ted Heath's retirement will probably boost the Tory vote rather than the reverse.
22/05/01 Alastair Matlock Email:
Old Bexley and Sidcup has been the political home of Sir Edward Heath for a number of years now, and has returned him to Westminster on several occasions despite the fact he doesn't live in this constituency. Only a Tory collapse will see this seat fall to Labour. The Tories will hold.
24/05/01 GK Email:
Ted Heath may have held this for 51 years but no one in their right mind would vote out The Father of the House of Commons and he still only won by 7%. Heath retired to protest Hague's leadership and that will come back to haunt Hague. Labour will take it- watch for a 10% plurality.
27/05/01 A.S. Email:adma@interlog.com
Though overshadowed by the actual defeats of cabinet ministers, heavy hitters, left (wet?) and right, the true scale of '97's Tory calamity was most poignantly evident in the fact that even sleepy Old Bexley & Sidcup, synonymous to the point of delirium with its sitting c20 Tory ur-icon, turned "marginal". (In fact, Heath did less than a percentage point better than Michael Portillo!) I don't know *how* aggressively Labour's gunning for it--it may be more of a collateral pickup, especially as to explicitly stomp on Ted Heath's face seems mighty cruel (he ain't Thatcher, you know). But it's a rational next puzzle-piece after the "Red Metroland" and other weird London electoral phenomena of '97. We'll see...
30/05/01 KF Email:
What nonsense. The Tories in Bexley are in a much stronger position than in 1997, having regained control of the council. The GLA election result here was also particularly good. Derek Conway will increase Ted Heath's majority here.

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Last Updated 6 June 2001
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