Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
North Southwark and Bermondsey

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Kingsley J. Abrams
Conservative Party:
Ewan G. Wallace
Liberal Democratic Party:
Simon H.W. Hughes
UK Independence Party:
Robert (Rob) A. McWhirter
Green Party:
Ruth Jenkins

Incumbent:
Simon Hughes

97 Result:
Jeremy Fraser
16,44440.3%
Grant Shapps
2,8356.9%
Simon Hughes
19,83148.6%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
40,79562.19%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
14,88934.5%
5,17012.0%
22,15851.4%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
43,12662.5%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1619.5%
16-2413.6%
25-3927.8%
40-6521.4%
65 <17.8%

Ethnic Origin:
White82.0%
Black11.7%
Indian/Pakistani2.9%
Other non-white3.4%

Employment:
Full Time61.5%
Part Time9.7%
Self Employed8.4%
Government Schemes1.4%
Unemployed18.9%

Household SEG:
I - Professional5.6%
II - Managerial/Technical25.3%
III - Skilled (non-manual)17.1%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)19.6%
IV - Partly Skilled15.5%
V - Unskilled8.3%

Misc:
Own Residence18.4%
Rent Residence79.6%
Own Car(s)38.7%
Submissions
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18/04/01 NG Email:
Simon Hughes is a very popular local MP and since winning the seat in a sensational by-election in the 1980s has shown no real sign (despite the insistance of commentators on various election night specials!) of losing it. With a more impressive status as Lib Dem Shadow Home Secretary and party leadership challenger, a strengthening local party and a good 1999 European result behind them, this will almost certainly be a Lib Dem hold.
20/04/01 JR Email:robertsat13@cwcom.net
Simon Hughes should win here pretty much whatever happens nationally. I lived in this constituency in the 97 election and it was covered in dayglow orange posters. Hughes has a huge personal vote - his election leaflets hardly mentioned the words 'Liberal Democrat'

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Last Updated 20 April 2001
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