Election Prediction Project
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British General Election
Kingston and Surbiton

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Philip J. Woodford
Conservative Party:
David L. Shaw
Liberal Democratic Party:
Edward J. Davey
Green Party:
Christopher J. Spruce

Incumbent:
Edward Davey

97 Result:
Sheila Griffin
12,81123.0%
Richard Tracey
20,35536.6%
Edward Davey
20,41136.7%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
55,66575.35%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
10,99119.6%
29,67453.0%
14,51025.9%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
55,93779.6%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1617.8%
16-2413.0%
25-3924.4%
40-6525.9%
65 <18.8%

Ethnic Origin:
White92.0%
Black0.9%
Indian/Pakistani2.8%
Other non-white4.3%

Employment:
Full Time68.1%
Part Time13.5%
Self Employed11.7%
Government Schemes0.6%
Unemployed6.2%

Household SEG:
I - Professional9.9%
II - Managerial/Technical40.6%
III - Skilled (non-manual)19.0%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)18.1%
IV - Partly Skilled8.5%
V - Unskilled2.7%

Misc:
Own Residence74.5%
Rent Residence24.1%
Own Car(s)72.0%
Submissions
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19/04/01 ED Email:edward.brown@bnc.ox.ac.uk
Despite the fact that the Liberal Majority is only 56 votes, the combination of a popular local MP who has nursed this seat since winning it in 1997, a Tory candidate who is an extreme right winger (the former MP for Dover) and the fact that the Liberal strength locally in this seat has held up very well in the local and even Euro elections since 1997, I expect that the Liberals will squeeze the Labour vote and win again here.
19/04/01 NG Email:
Ed Davey will have a pretty tough time holding Kingston and Surbiton this time round. He is defending a very slender majority and will be counting on squeezing a healthy Labour vote to keep the Tories at bay. Despite a number of setbacks in local elections, Ed Davey has been an attentive local MP and with an independent website now encouraging local Labour vote to switch to the Lib Dems this time, he might just hold off a Tory revival.
14/05/01 JB Email:
Ed Davey's position as MP for Kingston seems assured, as the energetic and keen Liberal Democrat has worked hard in the constituency and got a great deal of local media exposure, for instance as a regular pannelist on LBC radio. The Tory challenger comes from Dover and is pretty much unknown in the area. Labour have no chance in Kingston and their vote will be squeezed. There have been unconfirmed reports on BBC radio that Labour Party activists from Kingston have already conceeded defeat and are working in nearby Labour/Tory marginal Wimbledon instead.
22/05/01 Alastair Matlock Email:
Kingston and Surbiton is the amongst the top five Conservative targets at this election and even the smallest swing to Conservative would defeat the Liberals here. This seat will go Conservative on polling day.
22/05/01 Initial Email:
The Tories have been working Kingston & Surbiton hard for over a year and their canvass returns suggest that David Shaw will win by about 5000.
24/05/01 A.S. Email:adma@interlog.com
That magical patch of yellow bathing SW London in was a '97 Liberal Democrat wet dream come true; and its most important net effect is to lend the real, refreshing feeling of a local parliamentary caucus, a team, rather than a series of lucky one-offs a la Simon Hughes. So if this magical transcription of municipal power into the corridors of Westminster holds into the next term, even in hemidemisemi-marginals like Kingston & Surbiton, it may prove that there's "safety in numbers"...
27/05/01 PSR Email:
This is going to be a very close one on election night. It looks like an easy gain for the Tories but there is a big Labour vote for the Lib Dems to squeeze which is made more likely by the Tories choice of the deeply unpleasant, extremist right-winger, David Shaw as their candidate.
02/06/01 cm Email:
I wonder whether Mr Matlock has been to Kingston during the election campaign. It seems clear to me that Edward Davey is far more popular than the people predicting a conservative gain realise. It looks to me that this is a Lib Dem hold - Mr Davey's majority being nearer 5,600 than 56.
05/06/01 MB Email:mblewett@nildram.co.uk
From a public newsletter dated 2nd June 2001 from Edward Davey. The LibDem polls suggest a lead of 2% (about 1100) (was 0.1%/56 in 1997) based on telephone calling.

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Last Updated 6 June 2001
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