Election Prediction Project
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British General Election
Enfield, Southgate

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Stephen Twigg
Conservative Party:
John C. Flack
Liberal Democratic Party:
Wayne Hoban

Incumbent:
Stephen Twigg

97 Result:
Stephen Twigg
20,57044.2%
Michael Portillo
19,13741.1%
Jeremy Browne
4,96610.7%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
46,53370.72%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
12,84526.2%
28,39057.9%
7,07214.4%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
49,00275.3%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1618.4%
16-2413.3%
25-3922.1%
40-6527.1%
65 <19.1%

Ethnic Origin:
White86.4%
Black3.3%
Indian/Pakistani6.8%
Other non-white3.5%

Employment:
Full Time61.7%
Part Time11.7%
Self Employed16.8%
Government Schemes0.9%
Unemployed8.9%

Household SEG:
I - Professional9.4%
II - Managerial/Technical41.4%
III - Skilled (non-manual)18.2%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)18.9%
IV - Partly Skilled7.9%
V - Unskilled2.4%

Misc:
Own Residence78.5%
Rent Residence20.3%
Own Car(s)73.1%
Submissions
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11/04/01 S. Webb Email:
Twigg just edged Portillo in '97. Assuming the Tories nominate a quality candidate even a modest Tory revival should see this riding returned to the Conservatives. Twigg recieved a lot of protest votes last time that should return to the Tories.
02/05/01 LB Email:
I wouldn't be surprised if Stephen Twigg held the seat. Portillo's result in 1997 was no worse than others in the area and long term demographic change here favours Labour. Twigg is a good, popular MP whose views will continue to attract Lib Dem sympathisers. The Tories are still in trouble in suburban London.
02/05/01 Sean Fear Email:fear_sean@hotmail.com
The Conservatives should win, but they can't take victory for granted. They only outpolled Labour by 3% in the 1998 local elections, and London overall has not proved good territory for them since 1997.
03/05/01 mb Email:
Stephen Twigg is an exceptionally likeable and extraordinarily hard-working MP who has spent four years courting the people of Southgate. His liberal and pro-PR views will help him to retain natural LibDem supporters. The demographics of the seat (as in so much of suburban north London) are moving long-term against the Tories. I hear that even Tory members are put off by the new Tory candidate. Stephen Twigg could pull off a surprise hold.
23/05/01 Alastair Matlock Email:
The constituency of Enfield-Southgate has in past years been part of the Conservative heartland. It fell to Twigg of the Labour party in 1997 I believe on the strength of the Labour wave, and in a bid to send a message to Michael Portillo. Now that he has been returned safely to Westminster in "bomb-proof" constituency, I forecast that Enfield Southgate will return to is Conservative heritage and elect a Mr. Flack it's Member of Parliament.
30/05/01 HT Email:
I live in Enfield Southgate and Twigg is the only candidate who is making an effort, it is hard to see who is a Tory voter in London these days and I predict Twigg will hold the seat quite comfortably.
03/06/01 Email:
Enfield Southgate will be a symbol of the Tories' bad performance in London in 2001, just as it was in 1997. Stephen Twigg has worked the constituency well and is very popular, by contrast the Tories have picked a rural-based candidate whose manner and prejudices are completely out of keeping with suburban London. Labour will increase their majority here.

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Last Updated 6 June 2001
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