Election Prediction Project
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British General Election
St Albans

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Kerry P. Pollard
Conservative Party:
Charles Elphicke
Liberal Democratic Party:
Nicholas Rijke

Incumbent:
Kerry Pollard

97 Result:
Kerry Pollard
21,33842.0%
David Rutley
16,87933.2%
Anthony Rowlands
10,69221.0%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
50,80577.49%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
12,93225.0%
23,58645.7%
14,45228.0%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
51,66079.8%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1618.8%
16-2412.8%
25-3922.8%
40-6528.6%
65 <17.0%

Ethnic Origin:
White93.5%
Black1.4%
Indian/Pakistani3.0%
Other non-white2.2%

Employment:
Full Time67.8%
Part Time14.7%
Self Employed11.3%
Government Schemes0.6%
Unemployed5.7%

Household SEG:
I - Professional12.4%
II - Managerial/Technical43.5%
III - Skilled (non-manual)14.3%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)18.1%
IV - Partly Skilled8.3%
V - Unskilled2.8%

Misc:
Own Residence73.9%
Rent Residence24.2%
Own Car(s)78.9%
Submissions
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23/04/01 NG Email:
St Albans was one of those odd seats where, the Lib Dems left in an unconvincing second place in 1992, Labour came from nowhere to steal the seat from the Tories. This time round, things might not be quite so easy. If Labour can hold down the Lib Dem vote and secure a couple of switchers, it may just have enough to hold on, but it will probably quite a close-run thing in this once true blue Tory stronghold.
01/05/01 mb Email:
Kerry Pollard is well known & well liked and has shown an impressive willingness to stand up for the area and/or his beliefs against the New Labour line. Four years ago the local Labour machine surprised everyone by mounting an exceptionally professional campaign; it will surprise no-one this time round that they are still as well-organised. The Tory candidate's frantic thrashings are making him look foolish and must be off-putting to all but the most die-hard Conservative voters. The LibDems have got their act together this time round (after a feeble campaign last time) and they have started winning council seats again - but this time they're starting from third place and cannot hope to get very far; what extra votes they do pick up are at least as likely to come from the Tories as Labour.
02/05/01 Sean Fear Email:fear_sean@hotmail.com
The Tories have seen their vote in local elections in the constituency rise from 18% in 1996 to 34% in 1997. All three parties are well represented on the local council, however, and this seat could go one of three ways. My guess is a small Tory lead.
03/05/01 david Email:
I've been doing some canvassing in one of the less promising (for the Tories) areas in St. Albans. I have been struck by the general apathy in the electorate. It is going to be very hard for any of the contending political parties to get their supporters out in strength. That means that victory may well go to the best organised and hardest-working campaigners. Politicians and pundits who rely on the opinion polls could be in for a shock! It is also striking how much Labour's core voters hate Tony Blair. Watch out for disillusioned socialists who switch to the LibDems as a protest. It will be very close, whoever wins. My bet, at this stage (early May), is that the Tories will get it.
23/05/01 JR Email:
In respect of David's comments above - yes, there are some traditional Labour voters who don't like Tony Blair (though nothing like as many as is commonly supposed). However, there are huge numbers of Tory supporters and even Conservative party members (including some acquaintances of mine) who think that Bandwagon Billy is a waste of space. Are Tory voters who feel that way going to come out to the polls in huge numbers? I think not.
31/05/01 Harry Hayfield Email:
Don't rule out the Lib Dems, they do control the council

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Last Updated 6 June 2001
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