Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Beaconsfield

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Stephen Lathrope
Conservative Party:
Dominic C.R. Grieve
Liberal Democratic Party:
Stephen Lloyd
UK Independence Party:
Andrew Moffat

Incumbent:
Dominic Grieve

97 Result:
Alistair Hudson
10,06320.0%
Dominic Grieve
24,70949.2%
Peter Mapp
10,72221.4%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
50,20172.80%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
7,37113.7%
34,31663.7%
10,45219.4%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
53,83678.3%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1618.4%
16-2412.4%
25-3920.0%
40-6531.5%
65 <17.7%

Ethnic Origin:
White97.1%
Black0.4%
Indian/Pakistani1.5%
Other non-white0.9%

Employment:
Full Time64.3%
Part Time14.5%
Self Employed15.4%
Government Schemes0.4%
Unemployed5.3%

Household SEG:
I - Professional10.1%
II - Managerial/Technical47.4%
III - Skilled (non-manual)12.7%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)19.2%
IV - Partly Skilled7.1%
V - Unskilled2.4%

Misc:
Own Residence77.9%
Rent Residence19.6%
Own Car(s)85.1%
Submissions
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01/05/01 JR Email:
Tony Blair fought a byelection here as Labour candidate in 1982 and lost his deposit. He'd probably lose his 1000 again if he stood today! This place has a very long Tory heritage - Benjamin Disraeli became the Earl of Beaconsfield when he was elevated to the peerage.
20/05/01 RA Email:
Afraid I can't agree with JR. Beaconsfield today is different to the days when Tony Blair cut his teeth here. Firstly, after a highly successful firts term the Labour party can expect more 'soft' Tories who were frightened by the old Labour image to support them. Secondly, many of those Labour supporters who voted tactically with the Liberal ticket in earlier years now see that the results of the 97 election make this a two horse race between Labour and the Conservatives. Finally, the Labour Party are fielding a dynamic candidate who compares extremely well against the absentee MP Dominic Grieve. Moreover, the Labour Candidate, Stephen Lathrope, is a local man well attuned to local issues and popular with local voters.
22/05/01 Alastair Matlock Email:
Beaconsfield is among the safest Conservative seats in the country. Dominic Grieve is the son of the longtime MP for Solihull, Sir Percy Grieve. There is absolutely no question that Beaconsfield will turn out to vote for the Conservative Party.
02/06/01 PSR Email:
If the Tories lose Beaconsfield on election night, then expect to hear that William Hague has been found hanging from a tree in Richmond!
03/06/01 A.S. Email:adma@interlog.com
Even if all the pop stars in the Thameside estates are summoned by the diktats of Chairman Geri to get out and vote, Beaconsfield'll only go Labour in the event that the Conservatives are reduced to a mid-c20-Liberalish rump and Labour takes on the "conservative party of record" mantle and the Lib Dems take on the old Labour role...come to think of it, maybe that's not veering far from the truth...

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Last Updated 4 June 2001
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